Related papers: On predictability of ultra short AR(1) sequences

This paper presents uniform convergence rates for kernel regression estimators, in the setting of a structural nonlinear cointegrating regression model. We generalise the existing literature in three ways. First, the domain to which these…

This study extends and evaluates the forecasting performance of the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique using a general non-linear form for the re- current formula. In this study, we consider 24 series measuring the monthly…

The class of autoregressive (AR) processes is extensively used to model temporal dependence in observed time series. Such models are easily available and routinely fitted using freely available statistical software like R. A potential…

In the one-parameter regression model with AR(1) and AR(2) errors we find explicit expressions and a continuous approximation of the optimal discrete design for the signed least square estimator. The results are used to derive the optimal…

The predictive quality of machine learning models is typically measured in terms of their (approximate) expected prediction accuracy or the so-called Area Under the Curve (AUC). Minimizing the reciprocals of these measures are the goals of…

Conformal predictors provide set or functional predictions that are valid under the assumption of randomness, i.e., under the assumption of independent and identically distributed data. The question asked in this paper is whether there are…

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for…

This chapter covers methodological issues related to estimation, testing and computation for models involving structural changes. Our aim is to review developments as they relate to econometric applications based on linear models.…

Uncertainty estimation is important for ensuring safety and robustness of AI systems. While most research in the area has focused on un-structured prediction tasks, limited work has investigated general uncertainty estimation approaches for…

We study sequential prediction of real-valued, arbitrary and unknown sequences under the squared error loss as well as the best parametric predictor out of a large, continuous class of predictors. Inspired by recent results from…

A powerful and flexible approach to structured prediction consists in embedding the structured objects to be predicted into a feature space of possibly infinite dimension by means of output kernels, and then, solving a regression problem in…

Previous analysis on forecasting theory either assume knowing the true parameters or assume the stationarity of the series. Not much are known on the forecasting theory for nonstationary process with estimated parameters. This paper…

Linear autoregressive models serve as basic representations of discrete time stochastic processes. Different attempts have been made to provide non-linear versions of the basic autoregressive process, including different versions based on…

Linguistic structures exhibit a rich array of global phenomena, however commonly used Markov models are unable to adequately describe these phenomena due to their strong locality assumptions. We propose a novel hierarchical model for…

Forecasting risk (as measured by quantiles) and systemic risk (as measured by Adrian and Brunnermeiers's (2016) CoVaR) is important in economics and finance. However, past research has shown that predictive relationships may be unstable…

Anomaly detection on time series data is increasingly common across various industrial domains that monitor metrics in order to prevent potential accidents and economic losses. However, a scarcity of labeled data and ambiguous definitions…

We consider the problem of predicting values of a random process or field satisfying a linear model $y(x)=\theta^\top f(x) + \varepsilon(x)$, where errors $\varepsilon(x)$ are correlated. This is a common problem in kriging, where the case…

Multi-step forecasting is often described through a simple rule of thumb: recursive strategies are said to have high bias and low variance, while direct strategies are said to have low bias and high variance. We revisit this belief by…

In this paper we propose a class of structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) characterized by structural breaks (SVAR-WB). Together with standard restrictions on the parameters and on functions of them, we also consider constraints across…

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be…