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The fluctuation statistics of the observed sea ice extent during the satellite era are compared with model output from CMIP5 models using a multi-fractal time series method. The two robust features of the observations are that on annual to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-09-02 Sahil Agarwal , John S. Wettlaufer

Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Bohai Zhang , Noel Cressie

It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-01-26 Sebastian Bathiany , Bregje van der Bolt , Mark S. Williamson , Timothy M. Lenton , Marten Scheffer , Egbert van Nes , Dirk Notz

We use tools from statistical physics to develop a stochastic theory for the drift of a single Arctic sea-ice floe. Floe-floe interactions are modelled using a Coulomb friction term, with any change in the thickness or the size of the ice…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-31 Srikanth Toppaladoddi

We examine the long-term correlations and multifractal properties of daily satellite retrievals of Arctic sea ice albedo and extent, for periods of $\sim$ 23 years and 32 years respectively. The approach harnesses a recent development…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-05-08 S. Agarwal , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Since the beginning of satellite observations, the Arctic sea ice extent has shown a downward trend. The decline has been weaker in the March maximum than in the September minimum and masked by inter-annual fluctuations. One of the less…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2013-08-23 Peter D. Ditlevsen , Ivana Cvijanovic

The transport of sea ice over the polar oceans plays an important role in climate. This transport is driven predominantly by turbulent winds, leading to stochastic motion of ice floes. Observed diffusivities and velocity distributions of…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-02-26 Bryan Shaddy , P. Alex Greaney , Bhargav Rallabandi

We analyze the numerical solutions of a stochastic Arctic sea ice model with constant additive noise over a wide range of external heat-fluxes, $\Delta F_0$, which correspond to greenhouse gas forcing. The variability that the stochasticity…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-05-05 Woosok Moon , John S. Wettlaufer

The Arctic sea ice cover has significantly declined over the recent decades. The debate on whether this decline is caused by anthropogenic activity or internal cycles is still ongoing. However, despite this uncertainty, some physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-26 Arya Kimiaghalam

In this article, we considered the problem of sea ice cover is melting. Considering the `satellite passive microwave remote sensing data' as functional data, we studied daily observation of sea ice cover of each year as a smooth continuous…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-25 Purba Das , Ananya Lahiri , Sourish Das

Variability in sea ice conditions, combined with strong couplings to the atmosphere and the ocean, lead to a broad range of complex sea ice dynamics. More in-situ measurements are needed to better identify the phenomena and mechanisms that…

The extent to which the ongoing decline in Arctic sea ice affects mid-latitude climate has received great attention and polarised opinions. The basic issue is whether the inter-annual variability in Arctic sea ice is the cause of, or the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-11-26 Giuseppe Zappa , Theodore G. Shepherd , Paulo Ceppi

Eddies within the meso/submeso-scale range are prevalent throughout the Arctic Ocean, playing a pivotal role in regulating freshwater budget, heat transfer, and sea ice transport. While observations have suggested a strong connection…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-05-06 Minki Kim , Georgy E. Manucharyan , Monica M. Wilhelmus

The stochastic Arctic sea ice model described as a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation (ODE) is useful in explaining the seasonal variability of Arctic sea ice. However, to be nearer to realistic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-11-02 Woosok Moon

The winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) modulates East Asian climate and the East/Japan Sea (EJS), yet local, scale-dependent air-sea couplings linking atmosphere, ocean and sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) remain unclear. Using 30 years…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-15 Gyuchang Lim , JongJin Park

This work assesses the feasibility of the direct use of surface-wave dispersion curves from seismic ambient noise to gain insight into the crustal structure of Bransfield Strait and detect seasonal seismic velocity changes. We…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-10-25 Kenneth Muhumuza

The Marginal Ice Zone is a highly dynamic region where the atmosphere, ocean, waves and sea ice meet. Waves play a fundamental role in this coupled system, but progress in our understanding of wave-ice interactions is currently hindered by…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-05-12 J. J. Voermans , J. Rabault , A. Marchenko , T. Nose , T. Waseda , A. V. Babanin

Understanding the interactions between ice sheets and global climate forcings over geological timescales is essential for projecting their future. Previous studies have highlighted the role of ice dynamics and climate interactions in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-31 Pijush Patra , Ludovico T. Giorgini , J. S. Wettlaufer

Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-09-09 Ekaterina A. Chernyavskaya , Ivan Sudakov , Kenneth M. Golden , Leonid A. Timokhov

Quantifying kinetic energy (KE) and enstrophy transfer, mixing, and dissipation in the Arctic Ocean is key to understanding polar ocean dynamics, which are critical components of the global climate system. However, in ice-covered regions,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-29 Minki Kim , Georgy E. Manucharyan , Michelle H. DiBenedetto , Ellen M. Buckley , Daniel M. Watkins , Monica M. Wilhelmus
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