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We present a fully nonparametric method to estimate the value function, via simulation, in the context of expected infinite-horizon discounted rewards for Markov chains. Estimating such value functions plays an important role in approximate…
Dynamic pricing is the practice of adjusting the selling price of a product to maximize a firm's revenue by responding to market demand. The literature typically distinguishes between two settings: infinite inventory, where the firm has…
Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is essential for various downstream tasks. Most existing approaches rely on the sequences being uniformly spaced and aligned across all variables. However, real-world multivariate time…
Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…
Inferring the infinitesimal rates of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a central challenge in many scientific domains. This task is hindered by three factors: quadratic growth in the number of rates as the CTMC state space expands,…
Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…
This paper proposes a probabilistic Bayesian formulation for system identification (ID) and estimation of nonseparable Hamiltonian systems using stochastic dynamic models. Nonseparable Hamiltonian systems arise in models from diverse…
In this paper we propose a new methodology for solving a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. By utilizing the Dirichlet process, we model the unknown distribution of the underlying stochastic process…
We consider the situation where a temporal process is composed of contiguous segments with differing slopes and replicated noise-corrupted time series measurements are observed. The unknown mean of the data generating process is modelled as…
Probabilistic forecasting of irregularly sampled multivariate time series with missing values is an important problem in many fields, including health care, astronomy, and climate. State-of-the-art methods for the task estimate only…
Circular data arise in many areas of application. Recently, there has been interest in looking at circular data collected separately over time and over space. Here, we extend some of this work to the spatio-temporal setting, introducing…
We develop a unifying framework for Bayesian nonparametric regression to study the rates of contraction with respect to the integrated $L_2$-distance without assuming the regression function space to be uniformly bounded. The framework is…
Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering,…
Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this…
This paper describes a framework for flexible multiple hypothesis testing of autoregressive time series. The modeling approach is Bayesian, though a blend of frequentist and Bayesian reasoning is used to evaluate procedures. Nonparametric…
In light of widespread evidence of parameter instability in macroeconomic models, many time-varying parameter (TVP) models have been proposed. This paper proposes a nonparametric TVP-VAR model using Bayesian additive regression trees (BART)…
Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…
A nonparametric Bayesian sparse graph linear dynamical system (SGLDS) is proposed to model sequentially observed multivariate data. SGLDS uses the Bernoulli-Poisson link together with a gamma process to generate an infinite dimensional…
We propose a new, two-step empirical Bayes-type of approach for neural networks. We show in context of the nonparametric regression model that the procedure (up to a logarithmic factor) provides optimal recovery of the underlying functional…
A bootstrap procedure for constructing prediction bands for a stationary functional time series is proposed. The procedure exploits a general vector autoregressive representation of the time-reversed series of Fourier coefficients appearing…