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Theoretical developments in sequential Bayesian analysis of multivariate dynamic models underlie new methodology for causal prediction. This extends the utility of existing models with computationally efficient methodology, enabling routine…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-05 Kevin Li , Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Mike West

Structural Equation Models (SEM) are the standard approach to representing causal dependencies between variables in causal models. In this paper we propose a new interpretation of SEMs when reasoning about Actual Causality, in which SEMs…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-23 Maksim Gladyshev , Natasha Alechina , Mehdi Dastani , Dragan Doder , Brian Logan

In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Peter J. F. Lucas , Eleonora Zullo , Fabio Stella

Learning how complex dynamical systems evolve over time is a key challenge in system identification. For safety critical systems, it is often crucial that the learned model is guaranteed to converge to some equilibrium point. To this end,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Andreas Schlaginhaufen , Philippe Wenk , Andreas Krause , Florian Dörfler

In contemporary scientific research, understanding the distinction between correlation and causation is crucial. While correlation is a widely used analytical standard, it does not inherently imply causation. This paper addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Cao Zhihao , Qu Hongchun

Differential equations are frequently used in engineering domains, such as modeling and control of industrial systems, where safety and performance guarantees are of paramount importance. Traditional physics-based modeling approaches…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-30 Aaron Tuor , Jan Drgona , Draguna Vrabie

Identifying a coupled dynamical system out of many plausible candidates, each of which could serve as the underlying generator of some observed measurements, is a profoundly ill posed problem that commonly arises when modelling real world…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-17 Amirhossein Jafarian , Peter Zeidman , Vladimir Litvak , Karl Friston

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Ordinary differential equations have been used to model dynamical systems in a broad range. Model checking for parametric ordinary differential equations is a necessary step to check whether the assumed models are plausible. In this paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-26 Ran Liu , Yun Fang , Lixing Zhu

Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are an emerging class of deep learning models for dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for learning an ODE vector field from observed trajectories (i.e., inverse problems). We here…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Katharina Ott , Michael Tiemann , Philipp Hennig

Causal discovery is a data-driven paradigm for analyzing complex systems, while physics-based models, such as ordinary differential equations (ODEs), provide mechanistic structure for real-world dynamical processes. Integrating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Jianhong Chen , Naichen Shi , Xubo Yue

This paper considers how to classify the effects of interventions in causal models for outcomes and exposures observed over time. First, we demonstrate the limitations of the most common uses of potential outcomes and causal directed…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-29 Russell Steele , Naftali Weinberger , Tess Baker , Ian Shrier

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

Causal models have proven extremely useful in offering formal representations of causal relationships between a set of variables. Yet in many situations, there are non-causal relationships among variables. For example, we may want variables…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Sander Beckers , Joseph Y. Halpern , Christopher Hitchcock

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are foundational in modeling intricate dynamics across a gamut of scientific disciplines. Yet, a possibility to represent a single phenomenon through multiple ODE models, driven by different…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-01 Itai Dattner , Shota Gugushvili , Oleksandr Laskorunskyi

Spurred by tremendous success in pattern matching and prediction tasks, researchers increasingly resort to machine learning to aid original scientific discovery. Given large amounts of observational data about a system, can we uncover the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-31 Hananeh Aliee , Fabian J. Theis , Niki Kilbertus

Enhancement of the predictive power and robustness of nonlinear population dynamics models allows ecologists to make more reliable forecasts about species' long term survival. However, the limited availability of detailed ecological data,…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2025-04-18 Indrajyoti Gaine , Malay Banerjee

We study the long-time behavior of solutions to a class of evolution equations arising from random-time changes driven by subordinators. Our focus is on fractional diffusion equations involving mixed local and nonlocal operators. By…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Majdoub , Ezzedine Mliki

Neural ordinary differential equations are an attractive option for modelling temporal dynamics. However, a fundamental issue is that the solution to an ordinary differential equation is determined by its initial condition, and there is no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-06 Patrick Kidger , James Morrill , James Foster , Terry Lyons

Many production processes are characterized by numerous and complex cause-and-effect relationships. Since they are only partially known they pose a challenge to effective process control. In this work we present how Structural Equation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Maximilian Kertel , Stefan Harmeling , Markus Pauly