Related papers: Is it Correct to Use MLE Method for GRP Parameter …

We consider a one-dimensional recurrent random walk in random environment (RWRE) when the environment is i.i.d. with a parametric, finitely supported distribution. Based on a single observation of the path, we provide a maximum likelihood…

When analyzing incomplete data, is it better to use multiple imputation (MI) or full information maximum likelihood (ML)? In large samples ML is clearly better, but in small samples ML's usefulness has been limited because ML commonly uses…

Since the recent study (Krichene and Rendle 2020) done by Krichene and Rendle on the sampling-based top-k evaluation metric for recommendation, there has been a lot of debates on the validity of using sampling to evaluate recommendation…

In the last decade, there has been a growing interest to use Wishart processes for modelling, especially for financial applications. However, there are still few studies on the estimation of its parameters. Here, we study the Maximum…

Finite element model updating utilizing frequency response functions as inputs is an important procedure in structural analysis, design and control. This paper presents a highly efficient framework that is built upon Gaussian process…

Many common loss functions such as mean-squared-error, cross-entropy, and reconstruction loss are unnecessarily rigid. Under a probabilistic interpretation, these common losses correspond to distributions with fixed shapes and scales. We…

Automated Program Repair (APR) proposes bug fixes to aid developers in maintaining software. The state of the art in this domain focuses on LLMs, leveraging their strong capabilities to comprehend specifications in natural language and to…

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a multivariate Bernoulli process with auto-regressive feedback in the high-dimensional setting where the number of samples available is much less than the number of parameters. This…

This paper compares six different parameter estimation methods for shared frailty models via a series of simulation studies. A shared frailty model is a survival model that incorporates a random effect term, where the frailties are common…

Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators,…

In continuous process plants controlled by model predictive control, model-plant mismatch (MPM), due to the aging of processes, causes degradation of control performance. We propose a concept called Model Life Extension (MLE) and its…

The inherent bias pathology of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is confirmed for models with unknown parameters $\theta$ and $\psi$ when MLE $\hat \psi$ is function of MLE $\hat \theta.$ To reduce $\hat \psi$'s bias the…

The ability to rigorously estimate the failure rates of large language models (LLMs) is a prerequisite for their safe deployment. Currently, however, practitioners often face a tradeoff between expensive human gold standards and potentially…

This paper explores generalised probabilistic modelling and uncertainty estimation in comparative LLM-as-a-judge frameworks. We show that existing Product-of-Experts methods are specific cases of a broader framework, enabling diverse…

In this paper, we consider a linear regression model with AR(p) error terms with the assumption that the error terms have a t distribution as a heavy tailed alternative to the normal distribution. We obtain the estimators for the model…

We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical…

A Maximum Likelihood recursive state estimator is derived for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The estimator combines a particle filter to generate the conditional density and the Expectation Maximization algorithm to compute…

This paper considers maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in a large class of models with hidden Markov regimes. We investigate consistency of the ML estimator and local asymptotic normality for the models under general conditions which allow…

Damage models for ductile materials typically need to be parameterized, often with the appropriate parameters changing for a given material depending on the loading conditions. This can make parameterizing these models computationally…

We show that the method of maximum likelihood (MML) provides us with an efficient scheme for reconstruction of quantum channels from incomplete measurement data. By construction this scheme always results in estimations of channels that are…