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Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Derck W. E. Prinzhorn , Thijmen Nijdam , Putri A. van der Linden , Alexander Timans

In this paper, we investigate a deep learning method for predicting path-dependent processes based on discretely observed historical information. This method is implemented by considering the prediction as a nonparametric regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-20 Xudong Zheng , Yuecai Han

We investigate the statistical evidence for the use of `rough' fractional processes with Hurst exponent $H< 0.5$ for the modeling of volatility of financial assets, using a model-free approach. We introduce a non-parametric method for…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-11 Rama Cont , Purba Das

We consider a system of multiscale stochastic differential equations whose slow component is drivenby a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H greater than 1/2. Under ergodic assumptions ensuring the applicability of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-10 Xue-Mei Li , Colin Piernot , Szymon Sobczak , Kexing Ying

The linear fractional stable motion generalizes two prominent classes of stochastic processes, namely stable L\'evy processes, and fractional Brownian motion. For this reason it may be regarded as a basic building block for continuous time…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-17 Fabian Mies , Mark Podolskij

Fractional Brownian motion is a non-Markovian Gaussian process indexed by the Hurst exponent $H\in [0,1]$, generalising standard Brownian motion to account for anomalous diffusion. Functionals of this process are important for practical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-24 Tridib Sadhu , Kay Jörg Wiese

Recent advances in time series, where deterministic and stochastic modelings as well as the storage and analysis of big data are useless, permit a new approach to short-term traffic flow forecasting and to its reliability, i.e., to the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-29 Hassane Abouaïssa , Michel Fliess , Cédric Join

The $d$-dimensional fractional Brownian motion (FBM for short) $B_t=((B_t^{(1)},...,B_t^{(d)}),t\in\mathbb{R})$ with Hurst exponent $\alpha$, $\alpha\in(0,1)$, is a $d$-dimensional centered, self-similar Gaussian process with covariance…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-23 Jérémie Unterberger

We consider a stochastic differential equation involving standard and fractional Brownian motion with unknown drift parameter to be estimated. We investigate the standard maximum likelihood estimate of the drift parameter, two non-standard…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-12-13 Yuriy Kozachenko , Alexander Melnikov , Yuliya Mishura

We consider the time discretization of fractional stochastic wave equation with Gaussian noise, which is negatively correlated. Major obstacles to design and analyze time discretization of stochastic wave equation come from the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-05-20 Xing Liu

In this paper it is reconsidered the prediction problem in time series framework by using a new non-parametric approach. Through this reconsideration, the prediction is obtained by a weighted sum of past observed data. These weights are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-27 Pedro Cadahía , Jose Manuel Bravo Caro

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-21 Julie Bessac , Emil Mihai Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

In the last two decades, a number of methods have been proposed for forecasting based on fuzzy time series. Most of the fuzzy time series methods are presented for forecasting of car road accidents. However, the forecasting accuracy rates…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2010-05-25 G. Arutchelvan , S. K. Srivatsa , R. Jagannathan

In this article, we present the least squares estimator for the drift parameter in a linear regression model driven by the increment of a fractional Brownian motion sampled at random times. For two different random times, Jittered and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-25 Héctor Araya , Natalia Bahamonde , Lisandro Fermín , Tania Roa , Soledad Torres

Brownian motion in one or more dimensions is extensively used as a stochastic process to model natural and engineering signals, as well as financial data. Most works dealing with multidimensional Brownian motion consider the different…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-03-10 Michał Balcerek , Adrian Pacheco-Pozo , Agnieszka Wyłomanska , Krzysztof Burnecki , Diego Krapf

We extend the theoretical results for any FOU(p) processes for the case in which the Hurst parameter is less than 1/2 and we show theoretically and by simulations that under some conditions on T and the sample size n it is possible to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-10 Juan Kalemkerian

This paper focuses on controllability results of stochastic delay partial functional integro-differential equations perturbed by fractional Brownian motion. Sufficient conditions are established using the theory of resolvent operators…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-30 El Hassan Lakhel

In this work, we are interested in building the fully discrete scheme for stochastic fractional diffusion equation driven by fractional Brownian sheet which is temporally and spatially fractional with Hurst parameters $H_{1}, H_{2}…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-01-27 Daxin Nie , Jing Sun , Weihua Deng

Despite the success of fractional Brownian motion (fBm) in modeling systems that exhibit anomalous diffusion due to temporal correlations, recent experimental and theoretical studies highlight the necessity for a more comprehensive approach…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-07-02 Adrian Pacheco-Pozo , Diego Krapf

This paper is the first part of our survey on various results about the distribution of exponential type Brownian functionals defined as an integral over time of geometric Brownian motion. Several related topics are also mentioned.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Hiroyuki Matsumoto , Marc Yor