Related papers: Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks …
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
This work examines the discrete-time networked SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemic model, where the infection and recovery parameters may be time-varying. We provide a sufficient condition for the SIR model to converge to the set…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
Spatial models for spread of an epidemic may be mapped onto bond percolation. We point out that with disorder in the strength of contacts between individuals patchiness in the spread of the epidemic is very likely, and the criterion for…
Disease spread in most biological populations requires the proximity of agents. In populations where the individuals have spatial mobility, the contact graph is generated by the "collision dynamics" of the agents, and thus the evolution of…
The duration, type and structure of connections between individuals in real-world populations play a crucial role in how diseases invade and spread. Here, we incorporate the aforementioned heterogeneities into a model by considering a…
In an important paper, M.E.J. Newman claimed that a general network-based stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network and the…
The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
Inferring the network topology from the dynamics is a fundamental problem with wide applications in geology, biology and even counter-terrorism. Based on the propagation process, we present a simple method to uncover the network topology.…
Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy, and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
Spatio-temporal pathogen spread is often partially observed at the metapopulation scale. Available data correspond to proxies and are incomplete, censored and heterogeneous. Moreover, representing such biological systems often leads to…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
Networks provide a skeleton for the spread of contagions, like, information, ideas, behaviors and diseases. Many times networks over which contagions diffuse are unobserved and need to be inferred. Here we apply survival theory to develop…
Contact-tracing is an essential tool in order to mitigate the impact of pandemic such as the COVID-19. In order to achieve efficient and scalable contact-tracing in real time, digital devices can play an important role. While a lot of…
Contacts between individuals play an important role in determining how infectious diseases spread. Various methods to gather data on such contacts co-exist, from surveys to wearable sensors. Comparisons of data obtained by different methods…
The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to…
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…