Related papers: Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation a…
Determining the measurement uncertainty region is a difficult problem for generic sets of observables. For this reason the literature on exact measurement uncertainty regions is focused on symmetric sets of observables, where the symmetries…
During this last decade our knowledge of the evolutionary properties of stars has significantly improved. This result has been achieved thanks to our improved understanding of the physical behavior of stellar matter in the thermal regimes…
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
This article reviews some of the leading results obtained in solar dynamo physics by using temporal oscillator models as a tool to interpret observational data and dynamo model predictions. We discuss how solar observational data such as…
Spatial confounding is a fundamental issue in spatial regression models which arises because spatial random effects, included to approximate unmeasured spatial variation, are typically not independent of covariates in the model. This can…
Real-world deployment of machine learning models is challenging because data evolves over time. While no model can work when data evolves in an arbitrary fashion, if there is some pattern to these changes, we might be able to design methods…
The appearance of dark sunspots over the solar photosphere is not considered to be symmetric between the northern and southern hemispheres. Among the different conclusions obtained by several authors, we can point out that the North-South…
We present a rigorous mathematical solution to photometric redshift estimation and the more general inversion problem. The challenge we address is to meaningfully constrain unknown properties of astronomical sources based on given…
Sizes of the sunspots vary in a wide range during the progression of a solar cycle. Long-term variation study of different sunspot sizes are key to better understand the underlying process of sunspot formation and their connection to the…
The possibility of variations of the values of fundamental constants is a phenomenon predicted by a number of scenarios beyond General Relativity. This can happen if ``our'' fundamental constants are not the actual constants of the…
Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…
Advances in instrumentation have made it possible to study sunspots with unprecedented detail. New capabilities include imaging observations at a resolution of 0.1" (70 km on the sun), spectroscopy at ~0.2", and simultaneous…
The spatial scan statistic is widely used in epidemiology and medical studies as a tool to identify hotspots of diseases. The classical spatial scan statistic assumes the number of disease cases in different locations have independent…
Standard solar models (SSM) are facing nowadays a new puzzle: the solar composition problem. New determinations of solar metal abundances lead SSM calculations to conflict with helioseismological measurements, showing discrepancies that…
Observations of gravitational waves emitted by merging compact binaries have provided tantalising hints about stellar astrophysics, cosmology, and fundamental physics. However, the physical parameters describing the systems, (mass, spin,…
This paper investigates methods for estimating uncertainty in semantic segmentation predictions derived from satellite imagery. Estimating uncertainty for segmentation presents unique challenges compared to standard image classification,…
Examples of cyclic (periodic) behavior in geophysical data abound. In many cases the primary period is known, such as in daily measurements of rain, temperature, and sea level. However, many time series of measurements contain cycles of…
The statistical uncertainty in measuring the primordial density perturbations on a given comoving scale is dictated by the number of independent regions of that scale that are accessible to an observer. This number varies with cosmic time…
Attempts to replicate probabilistic reasoning in expert systems have typically overlooked a critical ingredient of that process. Probabilistic analysis typically requires extensive judgments regarding interdependencies among hypotheses and…