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This paper develops methods for estimating the natural direct and indirect effects in causal mediation analysis. The efficient influence function-based estimator (EIF-based estimator) and the inverse probability weighting estimator (IPW…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 Kentaro Kawato

Causal mediation analysis aims to characterize an exposure's effect on an outcome and quantify the indirect effect that acts through a given mediator or a group of mediators of interest. With the increasing availability of measurements on a…

Causal mediation analysis seeks to determine whether an independent variable affects a response variable directly or whether it does so indirectly, by way of a mediator. The existing statistical tests to determine the existence of an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 John Kidd , Dan-Yu Lin

While estimation of the marginal (total) causal effect of a point exposure on an outcome is arguably the most common objective of experimental and observational studies in the health and social sciences, in recent years, investigators have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-18 Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Ilya Shpitser

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent a gold standard when developing policy guidelines. However, RCTs are often narrow, and lack data on broader populations of interest. Causal effects in these populations are often estimated using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Zeshan Hussain , Michael Oberst , Ming-Chieh Shih , David Sontag

In large observational studies, the case-cohort design is commonly used to reduce the cost associated with covariate measurement. For survival outcomes, literature has suggested that the restricted mean survival time (RMST) be a more…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Andy Ni , Wei-En Lu , Bo Lu

A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-08-31 Oliver Dukes , Ilya Shpitser , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

We present a conformal inference method for constructing lower prediction bounds for survival times from right-censored data, extending recent approaches designed for more restrictive type-I censoring scenarios. The proposed method imputes…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-26 Matteo Sesia , Vladimir Svetnik

We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

Identification of standard mediated effects such as the natural indirect effect relies on heavy causal assumptions. By circumventing such assumptions, so-called randomized interventional indirect effects have gained popularity in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-03 Caleb H. Miles

An essential goal of program evaluation and scientific research is the investigation of causal mechanisms. Over the past several decades, causal mediation analysis has been used in medical and social sciences to decompose the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-15 K. C. G. Chan , K. Imai , S. C. P. Yam , Z. Zhang

Accelerated failure time (AFT) models provide a direct and interpretable time-scale description of covariate effects in lifetime data analysis, but classical formulations rely on linear predictors and are therefore limited in their ability…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Mebin Jose , Jisha Francis , Sudheesh Kumar Kattumannil

Accurately predicting the time of occurrence of an event of interest is a critical problem in longitudinal data analysis. One of the main challenges in this context is the presence of instances whose event outcomes become unobservable after…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-12-26 Ping Wang , Yan Li , Chandan K. Reddy

Causal mediation analysis is essential for disentangling the mechanisms by which investigational therapeutic and preventive agents impact clinical outcomes. However, the measurement of biological mediators is often subject to left-censoring…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Cong Jiang , Michael D. Hughes , Nima S. Hejazi

Recent approaches to causal inference have focused on causal effects defined as contrasts between the distribution of counterfactual outcomes under hypothetical interventions on the nodes of a graphical model. In this article we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-26 Iván Díaz

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-22 Tzu-Jung Huang , Alex Luedtke , Ian W. McKeague

In many medical studies, an ultimate failure event such as death is likely to be affected by the occurrence and timing of other intermediate clinical events. Both event times are subject to censoring by loss-to-follow-up but the nonterminal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-18 Fei Gao , Fan Xia , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Mediation analysis extending beyond single mediators has gained significant attention in recent years. However, related methods often assume the absence of unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding. To address this, we develop a mediation…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Lan Liu , Yangbo He , Wei Li