Related papers: Optimal importance sampling for L\'evy Processes
We study the approximation of $\mathbb{E}f(X_T)$ by a Monte Carlo algorithm, where $X$ is the solution of a stochastic differential equation and $f$ is a given function. We introduce a new variance reduction method, which can be viewed as a…
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…
We consider a general d-dimensional Levy-type process with killing. Combining the classical Dyson series approach with a novel polynomial expansion of the generator A(t) of the Levy-type process, we derive a family of asymptotic…
Estimation methods for the L\'{e}vy density of a L\'{e}vy process are developed under mild qualitative assumptions. A classical model selection approach made up of two steps is studied. The first step consists in the selection of a good…
In predictive modeling with simulation or machine learning, it is critical to accurately assess the quality of estimated values through output analysis. In recent decades output analysis has become enriched with methods that quantify the…
The Constant Elasticity of Variance (CEV) model significantly outperforms the Black-Scholes (BS) model in forecasting both prices and options. Furthermore, the CEV model has a marked advantage in capturing basic empirical regularities such…
We introduce and implement an importance-sampling Monte Carlo algorithm to study systems of globally-coupled oscillators. Our computational method efficiently obtains estimates of the tails of the distribution of various measures of…
Improving efficiency of importance sampler is at the center of research in Monte Carlo methods. While adaptive approach is usually difficult within the Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, the counterpart in importance sampling can be…
L\'{e}vy processes with completely monotone jumps appear frequently in various applications of probability. For example, all popular stock price models based on L\'{e}vy processes (such as the Variance Gamma, CGMY/KoBoL and Normal Inverse…
This paper explores the concept of random-time subordination in modelling stock-price dynamics, and We first present results on the Laplace distribution as a Gaussian variance-mixture, in particular a more efficient volatility estimation…
This paper fills the limited statistical understanding of Shapley values as a variable importance measure from a nonparametric (or smoothing) perspective. We introduce population-level \textit{Shapley curves} to measure the true variable…
We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use…
In this paper, we address rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed L\'evy processes with infinite activities. The presence of infinite activities poses a critical challenge, making it impractical to simulate or store the precise sample path…
In this paper, we consider the Heston-CIR model with L\'{e}vy process for pricing in the foreign exchange (FX) market by providing a new formula that better fits the distribution of prices. To do that, first, we study the existence and…
In this paper, we propose a novel and generic family of multiple importance sampling estimators. We first revisit the celebrated balance heuristic estimator, a widely used Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable…
In this paper we discuss the possibility of using multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods for weak approximation schemes. It turns out that by means of a simple coupling between consecutive time discretisation levels, one can achieve the same…
A new method called "variational sampling" is proposed to estimate integrals under probability distributions that can be evaluated up to a normalizing constant. The key idea is to fit the target distribution with an exponential family model…
In this paper, we propose and analyze a novel combination of multilevel Richardson-Romberg (ML2R) and importance sampling algorithm, with the aim of reducing the overall computational time, while achieving desired root-mean-squared error…
This paper covers a massive acceleration of Monte-Carlo based pricing method for financial products and financial derivatives. The method is applicable in risk management settings, where a financial product has to be priced under a number…
We consider the numerical approximation of $\mathbb{P}[G\in \Omega]$ where the $d$-dimensional random variable $G$ cannot be sampled directly, but there is a hierarchy of increasingly accurate approximations $\{G_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$…