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We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-31 Shota Gugushvili , Aad van der Vaart , Dong Yan

We first review existing sequential methods for estimating a binomial proportion. Afterward, we propose a new family of group sequential sampling schemes for estimating a binomial proportion with prescribed margin of error and confidence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-05 Zhengjia Chen , Xinjia Chen

The Bayesian approach has proved to be a coherent approach to handle ill posed Inverse problems. However, the Bayesian calculations need either an optimization or an integral calculation. The maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation requires…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Mohammad-Djafari

We consider conditional estimation in two-stage sample size adjustable designs and the following bias. More specifically, we consider a design which permits raising the sample size when interim results look rather promising, and, which…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-08-27 Per Broberg , Frank Miller

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the modes of an observed non-stationary mixture signal in the presence of an arbitrary distributed noise. A novel Bayesian model is introduced to estimate the model parameters from the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-03-31 Quentin Legros , Dominique Fourer , Sylvain Meignen , Marcelo A. Colominas

Bayesian coresets have emerged as a promising approach for implementing scalable Bayesian inference. The Bayesian coreset problem involves selecting a (weighted) subset of the data samples, such that the posterior inference using the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-01 Jacky Y. Zhang , Rajiv Khanna , Anastasios Kyrillidis , Oluwasanmi Koyejo

While learning the maximum likelihood value of parameters of an undirected graphical model is hard, modelling the posterior distribution over parameters given data is harder. Yet, undirected models are ubiquitous in computer vision and text…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Max Welling , Sridevi Parise

We study the distribution and uncertainty of nonconvex optimization for noisy tensor completion -- the problem of estimating a low-rank tensor given incomplete and corrupted observations of its entries. Focusing on a two-stage estimation…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Changxiao Cai , H. Vincent Poor , Yuxin Chen

We propose a coupled bootstrap (CB) method for the test error of an arbitrary algorithm that estimates the mean in a Poisson sequence, often called the Poisson means problem. The idea behind our method is to generate two carefully-designed…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-20 Natalia L. Oliveira , Jing Lei , Ryan J. Tibshirani

In many instances, the application of approximate Bayesian methods is hampered by two practical features: 1) the requirement to project the data down to low-dimensional summary, including the choice of this projection, which ultimately…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-26 David T. Frazier

We consider Bayesian optimization of the output of a network of functions, where each function takes as input the output of its parent nodes, and where the network takes significant time to evaluate. Such problems arise, for example, in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-03 Raul Astudillo , Peter I. Frazier

Model fitting is possibly the most extended problem in science. Classical approaches include the use of least-squares fitting procedures and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the value of the parameters in the model. However, in recent…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-12 J. Lopez-Santiago , L. Martino , J. Miguez , M. A. Vazquez

Given a sample from a discretely observed multidimensional compound Poisson process, we study the problem of nonparametric estimation of its jump size density $r_0$ and intensity $\lambda_0$. We take a nonparametric Bayesian approach to the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-06-08 Shota Gugushvili , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We consider inverse problems in Hilbert spaces under correlated Gaussian noise and use a Bayesian approach to find their regularised solution. We focus on mildly ill-posed inverse problems with the noise being generalised derivative of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-11-21 Natalia Bochkina , Jenovah Rodrigues

We extend the recently introduced regularization/Bayesian System Identification procedures to the estimation of time-varying systems. Specifically, we consider an online setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. The…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-09-26 Giulia Prando , Diego Romeres , Alessandro Chiuso

The pure tone hearing threshold is usually estimated from responses to stimuli at a set of standard frequencies. This paper describes a probabilistic approach to the estimation problem in which the hearing threshold is modelled as a smooth…

Applications · Statistics 2016-03-17 Marco Cox , Bert de Vries

We compare the accuracy, precision and reliability of different methods for estimating key system parameters for two-level systems subject to Hamiltonian evolution and decoherence. It is demonstrated that the use of Bayesian modelling and…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-10-15 Sophie Schirmer , Frank Langbein

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-22 Rafael Oliveira , Lionel Ott , Fabio Ramos