Related papers: Simple visit behavior unifies complex Zika outbrea…
In this article we compare two multi-patch models for the spread of Zika virus based on an SIRUV model. When the commuting between patches is ceased we expect that all the patches follow the dynamics of the single patch model. We show in an…
Evolution of disease in a large population is a function of the top-down policy measures from a centralized planner, as well as the self-interested decisions (to be socially active) of individual agents in a large heterogeneous population.…
Recent infectious disease outbreaks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Zika epidemic in Brazil, have demonstrated both the importance and difficulty of accurately forecasting novel infectious diseases. When new diseases first emerge, we…
Human mobility is an important characteristic of human behavior, but since tracking personalized position to high temporal and spatial resolution is difficult, most studies on human mobility patterns rely largely on mathematical models.…
How to prevent the spread of human diseases is a great challenge for the scientific community and so far there are many studies in which immunization strategies have been developed. However, these kind of strategies usually do not consider…
We present a general approach to explain the Zipf's law of city distribution. If the simplest interaction (pairwise) is assumed, individuals tend to form cities in agreement with the well-known statistics
The spreading dynamics of an epidemic and the collective behavioral pattern of the population over which it spreads are deeply intertwined and the latter can critically shape the outcome of the former. Motivated by this, we design a…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, super-spreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, while long-term persistent heterogeneity in…
Social network analysis is now widely used to investigate the dynamics of infectious disease spread from person to person. Vaccination dramatically disrupts the disease transmission process on a contact network, and indeed, sufficiently…
Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of…
We develop an analytical method to calculate encounter times of two random walkers in one dimension when each individual is segregated in its own spatial domain and shares with its neighbor only a fraction of the available space, finding…
We have designed a computational model of a virus spread near the outbreak threshold. Using computer simulation we studied the Susceptible - Infected - Recovered (SIR) process where in consequence of a force of habit that is manifested by…
Interactions between commuting individuals can lead to large-scale spreading of rumors, ideas, or disease, even though the commuters have no net displacement. The emergent dynamics depend crucially on the commuting distribution of a…
Americans travel 7 to 9 miles on average for shopping and recreational activities, which is far longer than the 15-minute (walking) city advocated by ecologically-oriented urban planners. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of…
Zika fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease with potential severe neurological complications and birth defects, remains a significant public health concern. The epidemiological models often oversimplify the dynamics of Zika transmission by…
Identifying statistical patterns characterizing human trajectories is crucial for public health, traffic engineering, city planning, and epidemic modeling. Recent developments in global positioning systems and mobile phone networks have…
We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time…
The global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has followed complex pathways, largely attributed to the high virus infectivity, human travel patterns, and the implementation of multiple mitigation measures. The resulting geographic patterns…
OBJECTIVE: To propose a new approach to analyze the age-distribution of reported cases for vector-transmitted infections. METHODS: Using officially reported number of cases of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria and leishmaniasis for…