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Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

A team of association football players may be envisioned as a directed network with player nodes and weighted pass edges. Such a simplistic representation of an otherwise complex structure yields several benefits, but also permits the…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-12 Vid Stropnik , Vuk Đuranović , Maruša Oražem

Based on NFL game data we try to predict the outcome of a play in multiple different ways. An application of this is the following: by plugging in various play options one could determine the best play for a given situation in real time.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-01-05 Brendan Teich , Roman Lutz , Valentin Kassarnig

We study quitting games and define the concept of absorption paths, which is an alternative definition to strategy profiles that accomodates both discrete time aspects and continuous time aspects, and is parameterized by the total…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-09 Galit Ashkenazi-Golan , Ilia Krasikov , Catherine Rainer , Eilon Solan

The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data.…

Applications · Statistics 2025-02-03 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-09 Mirko Fischer , Andreas Heuer

We present a parameterized approach to produce personalized variable length summaries of soccer matches. Our approach is based on temporally segmenting the soccer video into 'plays', associating a user-specifiable 'utility' for each type of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2017-06-29 Mohak Sukhwani , Ravi Kothari

Although the values of individual soccer players have become astronomical, subjective judgments still play a big part in the player analysis. Recently, there have been new attempts to quantitatively grasp players' styles using video-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Hyunsung Kim , Jihun Kim , Dongwook Chung , Jonghyun Lee , Jinsung Yoon , Sang-Ki Ko

In fluid team sports such as soccer and basketball, analyzing team formation is one of the most intuitive ways to understand tactics from domain participants' point of view. However, existing approaches either assume that team formation is…

Applications · Statistics 2023-06-13 Hyunsung Kim , Bit Kim , Dongwook Chung , Jinsung Yoon , Sang-Ki Ko

Tracking the ball is critical for video-based analysis of team sports. However, it is difficult, especially in low-resolution images, due to the small size of the ball, its speed that creates motion blur, and its often being occluded by…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-12-02 Andrii Maksai , Xinchao Wang , Pascal Fua

Soccer analytics is attracting increasing interest in academia and industry, thanks to the availability of data that describe all the spatio-temporal events that occur in each match. These events (e.g., passes, shots, fouls) are collected…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Danilo Sorano , Fabio Carrara , Paolo Cintia , Fabrizio Falchi , Luca Pappalardo

The Pythagorean formula is one of the most popular ways to measure the true ability of a team. It is very easy to use, estimating a team's winning percentage from the runs they score and allow. This data is readily available on standings…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2014-06-04 Steven J. Miller , Taylor Corcoran , Jennifer Gossels , Victor Luo , Jaclyn Porfilio

Soccer is a sport played on a pitch where effective use of space is crucial. Decision-making during transitions, when possession switches between teams, has been increasingly important, but research on space evaluation in these moments has…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-22 Yohei Ogawa , Rikuhei Umemoto , Keisuke Fujii

Machine learning has become a common approach to predicting the outcomes of soccer matches, and the body of literature in this domain has grown substantially in the past decade and a half. This chapter discusses available datasets, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Rory Bunker , Calvin Yeung , Keisuke Fujii

In this paper, we explore some of the applications of computer vision to sports analytics. Sport analytics deals with understanding and discovering patterns from a corpus of sports data. Analysing such data provides important performance…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-15 Neha Bhargava , Fabio Cuzzolin

We propose using Network Science as a complementary tool to analyze player and team behavior during a football match. Specifically, we introduce four kinds of networks based on different ways of interaction between players. Our approach's…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-11-13 J. M. Buldu , D. Garrido , D. R. Antequera , J. Busquets , E. Estrada , R. Resta , R. Lopez del Campo

A new approach in team sports analysis consists in studying positioning and movements of players during the game in relation to team performance. State of the art tracking systems produce spatio-temporal traces of players that have…

Applications · Statistics 2017-07-06 Rodolfo Metulini , Marica Manisera , Paola Zuccolotto

Football forecasting models traditionally rate teams on past match results, that is based on the number of goals scored. Goals, however, involve a high element of chance and thus past results often do not reflect the performances of the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-07 Edward Wheatcroft , Ewelina Sienkiewicz

Sport analysis is crucial for team performance since it provides actionable data that can inform coaching decisions, improve player performance, and enhance team strategies. To analyze more complex features from game footage, a computer…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-13 Adrian Manchado , Tanner Cellio , Jonathan Keane , Yiyang Wang

Analyzing defenses in team sports is generally challenging because of the limited event data. Researchers have previously proposed methods to evaluate football team defense by predicting the events of ball gain and being attacked using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-02 Rikuhei Umemoto , Kazushi Tsutsui , Keisuke Fujii