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Intelligent agents equipped with causal knowledge can optimize their action spaces to avoid unnecessary exploration. The structural causal bandit framework provides a graphical characterization for identifying actions that are unable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Min Woo Park , Sanghack Lee

Pairwise Choice Markov Chains (PCMC) have been recently introduced to overcome limitations of choice models based on traditional axioms unable to express empirical observations from modern behavior economics like context effects occurring…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-03 Alix Lhéritier

This paper discusses the fundamental principles of causal inference - the area of statistics that estimates the effect of specific occurrences, treatments, interventions, and exposures on a given outcome from experimental and observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-03 Francesca Dominici , Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Fabrizia Mealli

We review and conceptualize recent advances in causal inference under network interference, drawing on a complex and diverse body of work that ranges from causal inference, statistical network analysis, economics, the health sciences, and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-12 Subhankar Bhadra , Michael Schweinberger

A new Bayesian modelling framework is introduced for piece-wise homogeneous variable-memory Markov chains, along with a collection of effective algorithmic tools for change-point detection and segmentation of discrete time series. Building…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-14 Valentinian Lungu , Ioannis Papageorgiou , Ioannis Kontoyiannis

We present two online causal structure learning algorithms which can track changes in a causal structure and process data in a dynamic real-time manner. Standard causal structure learning algorithms assume that causal structure does not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Durdane Kocacoban , James Cussens

Causal Bayesian networks are 'causal' models since they make predictions about interventional distributions. To connect such causal model predictions to real-world outcomes, we must determine which actions in the world correspond to which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-04 Frederik Hytting Jørgensen , Luigi Gresele , Sebastian Weichwald

Early-warning signals of delicate design are always used to predict critical transitions in complex systems, which makes it possible to render the systems far away from the catastrophic state by introducing timely interventions. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-25 Shirui Bian , Zezhou Wang , Siyang Leng , Wei Lin , Jifan Shi

Identifying variables responsible for changes to a biological system enables applications in drug target discovery and cell engineering. Given a pair of observational and interventional datasets, the goal is to isolate the subset of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Menghua Wu , Umesh Padia , Sean H. Murphy , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Causal processes in nature may contain cycles, and real datasets may violate causal sufficiency as well as contain selection bias. No constraint-based causal discovery algorithm can currently handle cycles, latent variables and selection…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-08 Eric V. Strobl

Much of our experiments are designed to uncover the cause(s) and effect(s) behind a data generating mechanism (i.e., phenomenon) we happen to be interested in. Uncovering such relationships allows us to identify the true working of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 M. Z. Naser

Identifying the underlying time-delayed latent causal processes in sequential data is vital for grasping temporal dynamics and making downstream reasoning. While some recent methods can robustly identify these latent causal variables, they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Guangyi Chen , Yifan Shen , Zhenhao Chen , Xiangchen Song , Yuewen Sun , Weiran Yao , Xiao Liu , Kun Zhang

In an intelligent transportation system, the effects and relations of traffic flow at different points in a network are valuable features which can be exploited for control system design and traffic forecasting. In this paper, we define the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-24 Sina Molavipour , Germán Bassi , Mladen Čičić , Mikael Skoglund , Karl Henrik Johansson

Causal thinking enables humans to understand not just what is seen, but why it happens. To replicate this capability in modern AI systems, we introduce the task of visual causal discovery. It requires models to infer cause-and-effect…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-02 Yize Zhang , Meiqi Chen , Sirui Chen , Bo Peng , Yanxi Zhang , Tianyu Li , Chaochao Lu

In the fundamental statistics course, students are taught to remember the well-known saying: "Correlation is not Causation". Till now, statistics (i.e., correlation) have developed various successful frameworks, such as Transformer and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-22 Ning Xu , Yifei Gao , Hongshuo Tian , Yongdong Zhang , An-An Liu

Targeted and uniform interventions to a system are crucial for unveiling causal relationships. While several methods have been developed to leverage interventional data for causal structure learning, their practical application in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Mathieu Chevalley , Patrick Schwab , Arash Mehrjou

Traditionally, statistical and causal inference on human subjects rely on the assumption that individuals are independently affected by treatments or exposures. However, recently there has been increasing interest in settings, such as…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-25 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser , Youjin Lee

We present Causal Generative Neural Networks (CGNNs) to learn functional causal models from observational data. CGNNs leverage conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries to discover bivariate and multivariate causal…

This work addresses the following question: Under what assumptions on the data generating process can one infer the causal graph from the joint distribution? The approach taken by conditional independence-based causal discovery methods is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Jonas Peters , Joris Mooij , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Causal representation learning is the task of identifying the underlying causal variables and their relations from high-dimensional observations, such as images. Recent work has shown that one can reconstruct the causal variables from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-09 Phillip Lippe , Sara Magliacane , Sindy Löwe , Yuki M. Asano , Taco Cohen , Efstratios Gavves