Related papers: On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecast…
Pattern informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue…
The purpose of this white paper is to put together a coherent vision for the role of helioseismic monitoring of magnetic activity in the Sun's far hemisphere that will contribute to improving space weather forecasting as well as fundamental…
We propose a new type of earthquake precursor based on the analysis of correlation dynamics between geophysical signals of different nature. The precursor is found using a two-parameter cross-correlation function introduced within the…
The determination of delay times of solar wind conditions at the sunward libration point to effects on Earth is investigated using mutual information. This measures the amount of information shared between two timeseries. We consider the…
We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the azimuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a…
The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity.…
We show that there is a previously unreported quad-annual variation in the ~13.5 day component of the aa index of geomagnetic activity. We derive a model based on the planetary tidal effect at the solar surface due to Mercury and Jupiter…
A time-distance helioseismic technique, similar to the one used by Ilonidis et al (2011), is applied to two independent numerical models of subsurface sound-speed perturbations to determine the spatial resolution and accuracy of phase…
Magnetic storms are the most prominent global manifestations of out-of-equilibrium magnetospheric dynamics. Investigating the dynamical complexity exhibited by geomagnetic observables can provide valuable insights into relevant physical…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
Local helioseismology provides unique information about the subsurface structure and dynamics of sunspots and active regions. However, because of complexity of sunspot regions local helioseismology diagnostics require careful analysis of…
We present a new model for the probability that the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index exceeds -100 nT, with a lead time between 1 and 3 days. $Dst$ provides essential information about the strength of the ring current around the Earth…
This paper presents a new technical method for computing calendar time forecasts in a local area for large earthquakes of a target magnitude MT using a count small earthquakes MS < MT in the area, together with the Gutenberg-Richter (GR)…
Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are major drivers of space weather disturbances, posing risks to both technological infrastructure and human activities. Automatic detection of ICMEs in solar wind in situ data is essential for…
The policy environment of countries changes rapidly, influencing macro-level indicators such as the Energy Security Index. However, this index is only reported annually, limiting its responsiveness to short-term fluctuations. To address…
The sun as an oscillator produces frequencies which propagate in the heliosphere, via solar wind, to the terrestrial magnetosphere. We searched for those frequencies in the parameters of the near Earth solar plasma and the geomagnetic…
We present several methods towards construction of precursors, which show great promise towards early predictions, of solar flare events in this paper. A data pre-processing pipeline is built to extract useful data from multiple sources,…
This document describes an approach to the problem of predicting dangerous seismic events in active coal mines up to 8 hours in advance. It was developed as a part of the AAIA'16 Data Mining Challenge: Predicting Dangerous Seismic Events in…
As an important source for large geomagnetic storms, an "ICME-in-sheath" is a completely shocked interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) stuck in the sheath between a shock and host ejecta. Typical characteristics are identified from…
Seismic data preconditioning is essential for subsurface interpretation. It enhances signal quality while attenuating noise, improving the accuracy of geophysical tasks that would otherwise be biased by noise. Although classical poststack…