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The large deviations at Level 2.5 are applied to Markov processes with absorbing states in order to obtain the explicit extinction rate of metastable quasi-stationary states in terms of their empirical time-averaged density and of their…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-01-13 Cecile Monthus

We have shown recently that a Markov process conditioned on rare events involving time-integrated random variables can be described in the long-time limit by an effective Markov process, called the driven process, which is given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-17 Raphael Chetrite , Hugo Touchette

This paper considers the tail asymptotics for a cumulative process $\{B(t); t \ge 0\}$ sampled at a heavy-tailed random time $T$. The main contribution of this paper is to establish several sufficient conditions for the asymptotic equality…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-30 Hiroyuki Masuyama

Time-irreversible stochastic processes are frequently used in natural sciences to explain non-equilibrium phenomena and to design efficient stochastic algorithms. Our main goal in this thesis is to analyse their dynamics by means of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-21 Mikola C. Schlottke

This paper considers magnitude, asymptotics and duration of drawdowns for some L\'{e}vy processes. First, we revisit some existing results on the magnitude of drawdowns for spectrally negative L\'{e}vy processes using an approximation…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-03 David Landriault , Bin Li , Hongzhong Zhang

We give necessary and sufficient conditions for laws of large numbers to hold in $L^2$ for the empirical measure of a large class of branching Markov processes, including $\lambda$-positive systems but also some $\lambda$-transient ones,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-16 Matthieu Jonckheere , Santiago Saglietti

We discuss how maximum entropy methods may be applied to the reconstruction of Markov processes underlying empirical time series and compare this approach to usual frequency sampling. It is shown that, at least in low dimension, there…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-23 Gregor Chliamovitch , Alexandre Dupuis , Bastien Chopard , Anton Golub

We study the maximum of the random assignment process on rectangular matrices. We derive first-order asymptotics for the expected maximum, prove a law of large numbers under mild tail assumptions, and obtain exponential upper bounds for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-23 Timofey Moskalenko

We study maximum-likelihood-type estimation for diffusion processes when the coefficients are nonrandom and observation occurs in nonsynchronous manner. The problem of nonsynchronous observations is important when we consider the analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Teppei Ogihara

A famous result by Hammersley and Versik-Kerov states that the length $L_n$ of the longest increasing subsequence among $n$ iid continuous random variables grows like $2\sqrt{n}$. We investigate here the asymptotic behavior of $L_n$ for…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2025-11-24 Anne-Laure Basdevant , Lucas Gerin , Maxime Marivain

We use point processes theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of all upper order statistics for observations collected at renewal times. As a corollary, we obtain limiting theorems for corresponding extremal processes.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Bojan Basrak , Drago Špoljarić

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of sample functions of stable processes when $t{\to}\infty$. We compare our results with the iterated logarithm law, results for the first hitting time and most visited sites problems.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Lev Sakhnovich

We study the asymptotics of the $k$-regular self-similar fragmentation process. For $\alpha > 0$ and an integer $k \geq 2$, this is the Markov process $(I_t)_{t \geq 0}$ in which each $I_t$ is a union of open subsets of $[0,1)$, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-18 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Samuel G. G. Johnston , Joscha Prochno , Dominik Schmid

Motivated by the study of the time evolution of random dynamical systems arising in a vast variety of domains --- ranging from physics to ecology ---, we establish conditions for the occurrence of a non-trivial asymptotic behaviour for…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-15 Vladimir Belitsky , Mikhail Menshikov , Dimitri Petritis , Marina Vachkovskaia

We consider a particle system in continuous time, discrete population, with spatial motion and nonlocal branching. The offspring's weights and their number may depend on the mother's weight. Our setting captures, for instance, the processes…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-10-12 Bertrand Cloez

This article deals with the asymptotic behaviour as $t\to +\infty$ of the survival function $P[T > t],$ where $T$ is the first passage time above a non negative level of a random process starting from zero. In many cases of physical…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-30 Frank Aurzada , Thomas Simon

The subject of this paper is a fragmentation equation with nonconservative solutions, some mass being lost to a dust of zero-mass particles as a consequence of an intensive splitting. Under some assumptions of regular variation on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Bénédicte Haas

Markov branching systems form a fundamental class of stochastic models that are extensively applied in biology, physics, finance, and other domains. These systems are distinguished by their continuous-time evolution and inherent branching…

We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-24 Ron Doney , Claudia Klüppelberg , Ross Maller

Markov processes with stochastic resetting towards the origin generically converge towards non-equilibrium steady-states. Long dynamical trajectories can be thus analyzed via the large deviations at Level 2.5 for the joint probability of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-07 Cecile Monthus