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This paper introduces forward-looking measures of the network connectedness of fears in the financial system, arising due to the good and bad beliefs of market participants about uncertainty that spreads unequally across a network of banks.…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-27 Jozef Barunik , Mattia Bevilacqua , Radu Tunaru

Contagion is an extremely important topic in finance. Contagion is at the core of most major financial crises, in particular the 2008 financial crisis. Although various approaches to quantifying contagion have been proposed, many of them…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-28 Katerina Rigana , Ernst-Jan Camiel Wit , Samantha Cook

We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities' net exporters…

General Economics · Economics 2021-12-09 Jorge Carrera , Gabriel Montes-Rojas , Fernando Toledo

We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-17 Daniel J. Fenn , Mason A. Porter , Stacy Williams , Mark McDonald , Neil F. Johnson , Nick S. Jones

The cross-correlations between the exchange rate fluctuations of 74 currencies over the period 1995-2012 are analyzed in this paper. The eigenvalue distribution of the cross-correlation matrix exhibits a bulk which approximately matches the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-02 Sitabhra Sinha , Uday Kovur

We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-28 X. F. Jiang , B. Zheng , J. Shen

We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-11-11 Giacomo Raffaelli , Matteo Marsili

This paper studies the dynamic market linkages among cryptocurrencies during August 2015 - July 2020 and finds a substantial increase in market linkages for both returns and volatilities. We use different methodologies to check the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-01 Nektarios Aslanidis , Aurelio F. Bariviera , Alejandro Perez-Laborda

This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-17 Zhengyang Chi , Junbin Gao , Chao Wang

We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic…

General Economics · Economics 2022-10-11 Louisa Chen , Estelle Xue Liu , Zijun Liu

We discovered that past changes in the market correlation structure are significantly related with future changes in the market volatility. By using correlation-based information filtering networks we device a new tool for forecasting the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2016-05-31 Nicoló Musmeci , Tomaso Aste , Tiziana Di Matteo

This paper distinguishes between risk resonance and risk diversification relationships in the cryptocurrency market based on the newly developed asymmetric breakpoint approach, and analyzes the risk propagation mechanism among…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-19 Wenjie Lan

This paper proposes a new measure of tail risk spillover. The empirical application provides evidence of significant volatility and tail risk spillovers from the financial sector to many real economy sectors in the U.S. economy in the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-07 Wan-Chien Chiua , Juan Ignacio Peña , Chih-Wei Wang

Commodity futures constitute an attractive asset class for portfolio managers. Propelled by their low correlation with other assets, commodities begin gaining popularity among investors, as they allow to capture diversification benefits.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-13 M. Belén Arouxet , Aurelio F. Bariviera , Verónica Pastor , Victoria Vampa

This paper examines the sign-dependent international spillovers of Federal Reserve and European Central Bank monetary policy shocks. Using a consistent high-frequency identification of pure monetary policy shocks across 44 advanced and…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-11 Santiago Camara

The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-17 Thilo A. Schmitt , Desislava Chetalova , Rudi Schäfer , Thomas Guhr

We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-16 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-11-18 Dion Harmon , Blake Stacey , Yavni Bar-Yam , Yaneer Bar-Yam

Through a long-period analysis of the inter-temporal relations between the French markets for credit default swaps (CDS), shares and bonds between 2001 and 2008, this article shows how a financial innovation like CDS could heighten…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-23 Nathalie Rey

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-02-04 Lei Tan , Bo Zheng , Jun-Jie Chen , Xiong-Fei Jiang