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This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

Monte Carlo significance tests are a general tool that produce p-values by generating samples from the null distribution. However, Monte Carlo tests are limited to null hypothesis which we can exactly sample from. Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Michael Howes

A mathematical framework for Continuous Time Finance based on operator algebraic methods offers a new direct and entirely constructive perspective on the field and leads to new numerical analysis techniques. This is partly a review paper as…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Claudio Albanese

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith

The concepts of probability, statistics and stochastic theory are being successfully used in structural engineering. Markov Chain modelling is a simple stochastic process model that has found its application in both describing stochastic…

Applications · Statistics 2007-08-14 K. Balaji Rao

The Markov chain Monte Carlo method as a statistical mechanics technique for the study of macroscopic systems has furnished the scientific community with great knowledge and advances in the theory of phase transitions. While a number of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-10-10 Oluwole Emmanuel Oyewande

Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-23 Lucas de Lara

This chapter presents an introduction to Markovian modeling for the analysis of sequence data. Contrary to the deterministic approach seen in the previous sequence analysis chapters, Markovian models are probabilistic models, focusing on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-18 Jouni Helske , Satu Helske , Mohammed Saqr , Sonsoles López-Pernas , Keefe Murphy

We initiate the study of counting Markov Equivalence Classes (MEC) under logical constraints. MECs are equivalence classes of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) that encode the same conditional independence structure among the random variables…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Davide Bizzaro , Luciano Serafini , Sagar Malhotra

Conditional Monte Carlo refers to sampling from the conditional distribution of a random vector X given the value T(X) = t for a function T(X). Classical conditional Monte Carlo methods were designed for estimating conditional expectations…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-15 Bo Henry Lindqvist , Rasmus Erlemann , Gunnar Taraldsen

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

Adaptive and interacting Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) have been recently introduced in the literature. These novel simulation algorithms are designed to increase the simulation efficiency to sample complex distributions.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-15 G. Fort , E. Moulines , P. Priouret

We study time-changed Markov processes to speed up the convergence of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. The time-changed process is defined by adjusting the speed of time of a base process via a user-chosen, state-dependent…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-08 Andrea Bertazzi , Giorgos Vasdekis

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-05-23 David W. Hogg , Daniel Foreman-Mackey

This thesis introduces a way to build Markov chains out of Hopf algebras. The transition matrix of a "Hopf-power Markov chain" is (the transpose of) the matrix of the coproduct-then-product operator on a combinatorial Hopf algebra with…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2015-01-05 C. Y. Amy Pang

Markov matrices have an important role in the filed of stochastic processes. In this paper, we will show and prove a series of conclusions on Markov matrices and transformations rather than pay attention to stochastic processes although…

Rings and Algebras · Mathematics 2023-01-02 Chengshen Xu

From its inception in the 1950s to the modern frontiers of applied statistics, Markov chain Monte Carlo has been one of the most ubiquitous and successful methods in statistical computing. In that time its development has been fueled by…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-11 Michael Betancourt

Monte Carlo is a versatile and frequently used tool in statistical physics and beyond. Correspondingly, the number of algorithms and variants reported in the literature is vast, and an overview is not easy to achieve. In this pedagogical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-01-04 Michael Kastner

The analysis of contingency tables is a powerful statistical tool used in experiments with categorical variables. This study improves parts of the theory underlying the use of contingency tables. Specifically, the linkage disequilibrium…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-04 Friedrich Teuscher

Statistical machine learning often uses probabilistic algorithms, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), to solve a wide range of problems. Many accelerators are proposed using specialized hardware to address sampling inefficiency, the…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-03-09 Xiangyu Zhang , Sayan Mukherjee , Alvin R. Lebeck