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For a multivariate random walk with i.i.d. jumps satisfying the Cramer moment condition and having a mean vector with at least one negative component, we derive the exact asymptotics of the probability of ever hitting the positive orthant…
We study the probability that a random walk started inside a subgraph of a larger graph exits that subgraph (or, equivalently, hits the exterior boundary of the subgraph). Considering the chance a random walk started in the subgraph never…
We study the probability that a real stationary Gaussian process has at least $\eta T$ zeros in $[0,T]$ (overcrowding), or at most this number (undercrowding). We show that if the spectral measure of the process is supported on $\pm[B,A]$,…
We consider a one dimensional random-walk-like process, whose steps are centered Gaussians with variances which are determined according to the sequence of arrivals of a Poisson process on the line. This process is decorated by independent…
This paper is a step in the direction of understanding the behavior of non-intersecting Brownian motions on the real line, when the number of particles becomes large. Consider 2k non-intersecting Brownian motions, all starting at the…
Partition functions arise in a variety of settings, including conditional random fields, logistic regression, and latent gaussian models. In this paper, we consider semistochastic quadratic bound (SQB) methods for maximum likelihood…
Different change-point type models encountered in statistical inference for stochastic processes give rise to different limiting likelihood ratio processes. In this paper we consider two such likelihood ratios. The first one is an…
Let $S_n$ be the simple random walk on the integer lattice $\mathbb{Z}^d$. For a Bernstein function $\phi$ we consider a random walk $S^\phi_n$ which is subordinated to $S_n$. Under a certain assumption on the behaviour of $\phi$ at zero we…
We investigate the small deviation probabilities of a class of very smooth stationary Gaussian processes playing an important role in Bayesian statistical inference. Our calculations are based on the appropriate modification of the entropy…
We consider a piecewise-deterministic Markov process governed by a jump intensity function, a rate function that determines the behaviour between jumps, and a stochastic kernel describing the conditional distribution of jump sizes. We study…
In this note we introduce and solve a soft classification version of the famous Bayesian sequential testing problem for a Brownian motion's drift. We establish that the value function is the unique non-trivial solution to a free boundary…
Analytical work probability distributions for open classical systems are scarce; they can only be calculated in a few examples. In this work, I present a new method to derive such quantities for weakly driven processes in the overdamped…
We study a generalization of the Brownian bridge as a stochastic process that models the position and velocity of inertial particles between the two end-points of a time interval. The particles experience random acceleration and are assumed…
In this paper, we are interested in the asymptotic behaviour of the sequence of processes $(W_n(s,t))_{s,t\in[0,1]}$ with \begin{equation*} W_n(s,t):=\sum_{k=1}^{\lfloor nt\rfloor}\big(1_{\{\xi_{S_k}\leq s\}}-s\big) \end{equation*} where…
For iid $d$-dimensional observations $X^{(1)}, X^{(2)}, \ldots$ with independent Exponential$(1)$ coordinates, consider the boundary (relative to the closed positive orthant), or "frontier", $F_n$ of the closed Pareto record-setting (RS)…
We prove an estimate for the probability that a simple random walk in a simply connected subset A of Z^2 starting on the boundary exits A at another specified boundary point. The estimates are uniform over all domains of a given inradius.…
The purpose of the article is twofold. Firstly, we review some recent results on the maximum likelihood estimation in the regression model of the form $X_t = \theta G(t) + B_t$, where $B$ is a Gaussian process, $G(t)$ is a known function,…
Fractional Brownian motion and the fractional Langevin equation are models of anomalous diffusion processes characterized by long-range power-law correlations in time. We employ large-scale computer simulations to study these models in two…
For characterizing the Brownian motion in a bounded domain: $\Omega$, it is well-known that the boundary conditions of the classical diffusion equation just rely on the given information of the solution along the boundary of a domain; on…
We study the small deviation probabilities of a family of very smooth self-similar Gaussian processes. The canonical process from the family has the same scaling property as standard Brownian motion and plays an important role in the study…