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The conditional autoregressive model is a routinely used statistical model for areal data that arise from, for instances, epidemiological, socio-economic or ecological studies. Various multivariate conditional autoregressive models have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-23 Ye Liang

This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-07 Maria Suveges , Sofia C. Olhede

In the process of building (structural learning) a probabilistic graphical model from a set of observed data, the directional, cyclic dependencies between the random variables of the model are often found. Existing graphical models such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Oleksii Sirotkin

Graphical models are ubiquitous for summarizing conditional relations in multivariate data. In many applications involving multivariate time series, it is of interest to learn an interaction graph that treats each individual time series as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Anirban Bhattacharya , Jan Johannes , Suhasini Subba Rao

High-dimensional data analysis typically focuses on low-dimensional structure, often to aid interpretation and computational efficiency. Graphical models provide a powerful methodology for learning the conditional independence structure in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-13 Maria De Iorio , Willem van den Boom , Alexandros Beskos , Ajay Jasra , Andrea Cremaschi

We formulate and analyze a graphical model selection method for inferring the conditional independence graph of a high-dimensional nonstationary Gaussian random process (time series) from a finite-length observation. The observed process…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-14 Nguyen Tran Quang , Alexander Jung

Causal structure learning with data from multiple contexts carries both opportunities and challenges. Opportunities arise from considering shared and context-specific causal graphs enabling to generalize and transfer causal knowledge across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Martin Rabel , Wiebke Günther , Jakob Runge , Andreas Gerhardus

We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-07-18 Michael Eichler

Continuously-observed event occurrences, often exhibit self- and mutually-exciting effects, which can be well modeled using temporal point processes. Beyond that, these event dynamics may also change over time, with certain periodic trends.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-11 Sikun Yang , Hongyuan Zha

Extremal graphical models are sparse statistical models for multivariate extreme events. The underlying graph encodes conditional independencies and enables a visual interpretation of the complex extremal dependence structure. For the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-18 Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

We introduce a nonparametric graphical model for discrete node variables based on additive conditional independence. Additive conditional independence is a three way statistical relation that shares similar properties with conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-30 Jun Tao , Bing Li , Lingzhou Xue

Self-exciting point processes are widely used to model the contagious effects of crime events living within continuous geographic space, using their occurrence time and locations. However, in urban environments, most events are naturally…

Applications · Statistics 2025-10-01 Zheng Dong , Jorge Mateu , Yao Xie

Standard geostatistical models assume stationarity and rely on a variogram model to account for the spatial dependence in the observed data. In some instances, this assumption that the spatial dependence structure is constant throughout the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-16 Dave Higdon , Jenise Swall , John Kern

Measuring conditional dependence is an important topic in statistics with broad applications including graphical models. Under a factor model setting, a new conditional dependence measure based on projection is proposed. The corresponding…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-14 Jianqing Fan , Yang Feng , Lucy Xia

Physical processes rarely occur in isolation, rather they influence and interact with one another. Thus, there is great benefit in modeling potential dependence between both spatial locations and different processes. It is the interaction…

Sociotechnological and geospatial processes exhibit time varying structure that make insight discovery challenging. This paper proposes a new statistical model for such systems, modeled as dynamic networks, to address this challenge. It…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-06-27 Jace Robinson , Derek Doran

Extreme events over large spatial domains may exhibit highly heterogeneous tail dependence characteristics, yet most existing spatial extremes models yield only one dependence class over the entire spatial domain. To accurately characterize…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-14 Muyang Shi , Likun Zhang , Mark D. Risser , Benjamin A. Shaby

Spatial-temporal graph modeling is an important task to analyze the spatial relations and temporal trends of components in a system. Existing approaches mostly capture the spatial dependency on a fixed graph structure, assuming that the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-04 Zonghan Wu , Shirui Pan , Guodong Long , Jing Jiang , Chengqi Zhang

We present a nonparametric graphical model. Our model uses an undirected graph that represents conditional independence for general random variables defined by the conditional dependence coefficient (Azadkia and Chatterjee (2021)). The set…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Konrad Furmańczyk

As an important part of intelligent transportation systems, traffic forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from academia and industry. Despite a lot of methods being proposed for traffic forecasting, it is still difficult to model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-07 Le Zhao , Mingcai Chen , Yuntao Du , Haiyang Yang , Chongjun Wang