Related papers: Subdiffusion of volcanic earthquakes
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…
A dynamic earthquake source process is modeled by assuming interaction among frictional heat, fluid pressure, and inelastic porosity. In particular, fluid pressure increase due to frictional heating (thermal pressurization effect) and fluid…
We rigorously analyze the low temperature non-equilibrium dynamics of the East model, a special example of a one dimensional oriented kinetically constrained particle model, when the initial distribution is different from the reversible one…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
Aging, the process of growing old or maturing, is one of the most widely seen natural phenomena in the world. For the stochastic processes, sometimes the influence of aging can not be ignored. For example, in this paper, by analyzing the…
Scale invariance is a hallmark of many natural systems, including solar flares, where energy release spans a vast range of scales. Recent computational advances, at the level of both algorithmics and hardware, have enabled high-resolution…
We present a simple model of earthquakes on a pre-existing hierarchical fault network. The system self-organizes on long time scales in a stationary state with a power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes. The largest…
Upon employing the analysis in a new time domain, termed natural time, it has been recently demonstrated that a remarkable change of seismicity emerges before major mainshocks in California. What constitutes this change is that the…
Diffusion and clustering of lattice vacancies in silicon as a function of temperature, concentration, and interaction range are investigated by Kinetic Lattice Monte Carlo simulations. It is found that higher temperatures lead to larger…
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions P(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space-time windows for the California catalog, over fixed spatial boxes 5 x 5 km^2 and time intervals dt =1, 10, 100 and…
We present results from a physical experiment which demonstrates that a sheared granular medium behaves in a manner analogous to earthquake activity. The device consists of an annular plate rotating over a granular medium in a stick-slip…
The statistical properties of earthquake aftershocks are studied. The scaling relation for the exponents of the Omori law and the power-law calm time distribution (i.e., the interoccurrence time distribution), which is valid if a sequence…
As a simplified model for subsurface flows elliptic equations may be utilized. Insufficient measurements or uncertainty in those are commonly modeled by a random coefficient, which then accounts for the uncertain permeability of a given…
Here we focus on a basic statistical measure of earthquake catalogs that has not been studied before, the asymmetry of interevent time series (e.g., reflecting the tendency to have more aftershocks than spontaneous earthquakes). We define…
Observations of the time lag between the last deglaciation and a surge in volcanic activity in Iceland constrain the average melt ascent velocity to be $\geq50$ $\mathrm{m/yr}$. Although existing theoretical work has explained why the surge…
Forest fire models may be interpreted as a simple model for earthquake occurrence by translating trees and fire into stressed segments of a fault and their rupture, respectively. Here we adopt a twodimensional forest-fire model in…
The evolution of a surface excitation in a two dimentional model is analyzed. I) It starts quadratically up to a spreading time t_{S}. II) It follows an exponential behavior governed by a self-consistent Fermi Golden Rule. III) At longer…
Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…
Hysteresis, the lag between the force and the response, is often associated with noisy, jerky motion which have recently been called ``avalanches''. The interesting question is why the avalanches come in such a variety of sizes: naively one…
In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique…