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Natural ecosystems, in particular on the microbial scale, are inhabited by a large number of species. The population size of each species is affected by interactions of individuals with each other and by spatial and temporal changes in…
We study the effects of demographic stochasticity on the long-term dynamics of biological coevolution models of community assembly. The noise is induced in order to check the validity of deterministic population dynamics. While mutualistic…
Even in large systems, the effect of noise arising from when populations are initially small can persist to be measurable on the macroscale. A deterministic approximation to a stochastic model will fail to capture this effect, but it can be…
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that…
Some practical results are derived for population inference based on a sample, under the two qualitative conditions of 'ignorability' and exchangeability. These are the 'Histogram Theorem', for predicting the outcome of a non-sampled member…
Within the framework of population genetics we consider the evolution of an asexual haploid population under the effect of a rapidly varying natural selection (microevolution). We focus on the case in which the environment exerting…
While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…
Random models of evolution are instrumental in extracting rates of microscopic evolutionary mechanisms from empirical observations on genetic variation in genome sequences. In this context it is necessary to know the statistical properties…
Varying coefficient models are widely used to characterize dynamic associations between longitudinal outcomes and covariates. Existing work on varying coefficient models, however, all assumes that observation times are independent of the…
We address the link between the controllability or observability of a stochastic complex system and concepts of information theory. We show that the most influential degrees of freedom can be detected without acting on the system, by…
The problem of estimating the size of a population based on a subset of individuals observed across multiple data sources is often referred to as capture-recapture or multiple-systems estimation. This is fundamentally a missing data…
Ecosystems tend to fluctuate around stable equilibria in response to internal dynamics and environmental factors. Occasionally, they enter an unstable tipping region and collapse into an alternative stable state. Our understanding of how…
We address a novel approach for stochastic individual-based modelling of a single species population. Individuals are distinguished by their remaining lifetimes, which are regulated by the interplay between the inexorable running of time…
In animal groups, individual decisions are best characterised by probabilistic rules. Furthermore, animals of many species live in small groups. Probabilistic interactions among small numbers of individuals lead to a so called intrinsic…
The observation that phenotypic variability is ubiquitous in isogenic populations has led to a multitude of experimental and theoretical studies seeking to probe the causes and consequences of this variability. Whether it be in the context…
Models of population growth and extinction are an increasingly popular subject of study. However, consequences of stochasticity and noise in shaping distributions and outcomes are not sufficiently explored. Here we consider a distributed…
We present a stochastic model of population dynamics exploiting cross-sectional data in trend analysis and forecasts for groups and cohorts of a population. While sharing the convenient features of classic Markov models, it alleviates the…
In order to understand how the combination of domain evolution and impulsive harvesting affect the dynamics of a population, we propose a diffusive logistic population model with impulsive harvesting on a periodically evolving domain.…
The interaction between individuals in biological populations, dilute components of chemical systems, or particles transported by turbulent flows depends critically on their contact statistics. This work clarifies those statistics under the…
Population dynamics in random ecological networks are investigated by analyzing a simple deterministic equation. It is found that a sequence of abrupt changes of populations punctuating quiescent states characterize the long time behavior.…