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The maximum likelihood approach is adapted to the problem of estimation of drift and diffusion functions of stochastic processes from measured time series. We reconcile a previously devised iterative procedure [Kleinhans et al., Physics…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-13 D. Kleinhans , R. Friedrich

We present a version of the stochastic maximum principle (SMP) for ergodic control problems. In particular we give necessary (and sufficient) conditions for optimality for controlled dissipative systems in finite dimensions. The strategy we…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-05 Carlo Orrieri , Gianmario Tessitore , Petr Veverka

In this paper, we establish sharp upper and lower bounds on the convergence rate of the empirical measures of point processes under the Wasserstein distance. To this end, we first introduce a new metric on the space of counting measures…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-28 Dongzhou Huang , Tianyi Jiang , Haonan Wang

We consider a collection of fully coupled weakly interacting diffusion processes moving in a two-scale environment. We study the moderate deviations principle of the empirical distribution of the particles' positions in the combined limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-07-17 Zachary Bezemek , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are a popular class of models suitable for solving control decision problems in probabilistic reactive systems. We consider parametric MDPs (pMDPs) that include parameters in some of the transition…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2018-06-14 Sebastian Arming , Ezio Bartocci , Krishnendu Chatterjee , Joost-Pieter Katoen , Ana Sokolova

Bitseki and Delmas (2021) have studied recently the central limit theorem for kernel estimator of invariant density in bifurcating Markov chains models. We complete their work by proving a moderate deviation principle for this estimator.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-03 S. Valère Bitseki Penda

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the minimum $L_1$-norm estimator of the drift parameter for fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type process driven by a general Gaussian process.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-10 B. L. S. Prakasa Rao

The purpose of the present paper is to establish moderate deviation principles for a rather general class of random variables fulfilling certain bounds of the cumulants. We apply a celebrated lemma of the theory of large deviations…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Hanna Doering , Peter Eichelsbacher

The asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under regularity conditions is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In this paper, we give explicit upper bounds on the distributional distance between the distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-23 Andreas Anastasiou

In this paper, we investigate the parameter estimation problem for reflected OU processes. Both the estimates based on continuously observed processes and discretely observed processes are considered. The explicit formulas for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-03 Han Yuecai , Zhang Dingwen

We continue the investigation of the spectral theory and exponential asymptotics of Markov processes, following Kontoyiannis and Meyn (2003). We introduce a new family of nonlinear Lyapunov drift criteria, characterizing distinct subclasses…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ioannis Kontoyiannis , S. P. Meyn

We consider the problem of frequency estimation by observations of the periodic diffusion process possesing ergodic properties in two different situations. The first one corresponds to continuously differentiable with respect to parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-30 Reinhard Höpfner , Yury A Kutoyants

We consider the homogeneous stochastic differential equation with unknown parameter to be estimated. We prove that the standard maximum likelihood estimate is strongly consistent under very mild conditions. There are also established the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-07 Yuliya Mishura

In this work we study systems consisting of a group of moving particles. In such systems, often some important parameters are unknown and have to be estimated from observed data. Such parameter estimation problems can often be solved via a…

Applications · Statistics 2023-07-11 Chen Cheng , Linjie Wen , Jinglai Li

Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process of the second kind $(\text{fOU}_{2})$ is solution of the Langevin equation $\mathrm{d}X_t = -\theta X_t\,\mathrm{d}t+\mathrm{d}Y_t^{(1)}, \ \theta >0$ with driving noise $ Y_t^{(1)} := \int^t_0 e^{-s}…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-02-26 Ehsan Azmoodeh , Jose Igor Morlanes

We study approximate maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) for the parameters of the widely used Heston stock and volatility stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We compute explicit closed form estimators maximizing the discretized…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Robert Azencott , Yutheeka Gadhyan

By comparing the original equations with the corresponding stationary ones, the moderate deviation principle (MDP) is established for unbounded additive functionals of several different models of distribution dependent SDEs, with…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-26 Panpan Ren , Shen Wang

In this paper, we consider an inference problem for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a general one-dimensional centered Gaussian process $(G_t)_{t\ge 0}$. The second order mixed partial derivative of the covariance function $ R(t,\,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-25 Yong Chen , Hongjuan Zhou

Motivated by the statistical and computational challenges of computing Wasserstein distances in high-dimensional contexts, machine learning researchers have defined modified Wasserstein distances based on computing distances between…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-02 Jiaqi Xi , Jonathan Niles-Weed

We present a statistically and computationally efficient spectral-domain maximum-likelihood procedure to solve for the structure of Gaussian spatial random fields within the Matern covariance hyperclass. For univariate, stationary, and…