Related papers: Statistical inference for the doubly stochastic se…
We consider a continuous time process that is self-exciting and ergodic, called threshold Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders (CKLS) process. This process is a generalization of various models in econometrics, such as Vasicek model,…
This paper addresses the estimation of locally stationary long-range dependent processes, a methodology that allows the statistical analysis of time series data exhibiting both nonstationarity and strong dependency. A time-varying…
Hawkes Processes have undergone increasing popularity as default tools for modeling self- and mutually exciting interactions of discrete events in continuous-time event streams. A Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) unconstrained…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
We prove a central limit type theorem for critical marked Hawkes processes. We study the case where the marks are i.i.d. with nonnegative values and their common distribution is either heavy tailed or has finite variance. The kernel…
Epilepsy is a neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures affecting more than 70 million people worldwide. Often, an individual with epilepsy is more likely to experience subsequent seizures following an initial seizure, a…
Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…
We provide asymptotic results and develop high frequency statistical procedures for time-changed L\'evy processes sampled at random instants. The sampling times are given by first hitting times of symmetric barriers whose distance with…
The methods of the probability theory have been used in order to build up a new model of hysteresis. It turns out that the reversal points of the control parameter (e. g., the magnetic field) are Markov points which determine the stochastic…
This paper deals with the problem of inference associated with linear fractional diffusion process with random effects in the drift. In particular we are concerned with the maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of the random effect…
This study examines the use of a recurrent neural network for estimating the parameters of a Hawkes model based on high-frequency financial data, and subsequently, for computing volatility. Neural networks have shown promising results in…
Many economic panel and dynamic models, such as rational behavior and Euler equations, imply that the parameters of interest are identified by conditional moment restrictions. We introduce a novel inference method without any prior…
Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…
We develop a new tool, the time inhomogeneous Poisson equation in the whole space and with a terminal condition at infinity, to study the asymptotic behavior of the non-autonomous multi-scale stochastic system with irregular coefficients,…
We consider finite systems of $N$ interacting neurons described by non-linear Hawkes processes in a mean field frame. Neurons are described by their membrane potential. They spike randomly, at a rate depending on their potential. In between…
Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous…
We study statistical aspects of state-dependent Hawkes processes, which are an extension of Hawkes processes where a self- and cross-exciting counting process and a state process are fully coupled, interacting with each other. The…
The Tick library allows researchers in market microstructure to simulate and learn Hawkes process in high-frequency data, with optimized parametric and non-parametric learners. But one challenge is to take into account the correct causality…
In this article we consider Bayesian parameter inference associated to partially-observed stochastic processes that start from a set B0 and are stopped or killed at the first hitting time of a known set A. Such processes occur naturally…