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We consider the fundamental problem of inferring the causal direction between two univariate numeric random variables $X$ and $Y$ from observational data. The two-variable case is especially difficult to solve since it is not possible to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-23 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

Penalized regression methods such as ridge regression heavily rely on the choice of a tuning or penalty parameter, which is often computed via cross-validation. Discrepancies in the value of the penalty parameter may lead to substantial…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Kristoffer H. Hellton , Camilla Lingjærde , Riccardo De Bin

We develop a general framework for distribution-free predictive inference in regression, using conformal inference. The proposed methodology allows for the construction of a prediction band for the response variable using any estimator of…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-09 Jing Lei , Max G'Sell , Alessandro Rinaldo , Ryan J. Tibshirani , Larry Wasserman

We introduce a new approach to prediction in graphical models with latent-shift adaptation, i.e., where source and target environments differ in the distribution of an unobserved confounding latent variable. Previous work has shown that as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-26 William I. Walker , Arthur Gretton , Maneesh Sahani

Channel importance in vision networks is usually summarized by a single score. That summary hides two different questions: how much a channel is related to the task, and whether its function can be supplied by same-layer peers when the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Houman Safaai , Andrew T. Landau , Celia C. Beron , Yasin Mazloumi , Bernardo L. Sabatini

There are many research works and methods about change point detection in the literature. However, there are only a few that provide inference for such change points after being estimated. This work mainly focuses on a statistical analysis…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-02 Reza Valiollahi Mehrizi , Shojaeddin Chenouri

Through studying the critical phenomena in continuum-percolation of discs, we find a new approach to locate the critical point, i.e. using the inflection point of $P_\infty$ as an evaluation of the percolation threshold. The susceptibility,…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2015-05-13 Hongwei Ke , Mingmei Xu , Lianshou Liu

This article presents a review of some old and new results on the long time behavior of reflected diffusions. First, we present a summary of prior results on construction, ergodicity and geometric ergodicity of reflected diffusions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Sayan Banerjee , Amarjit Budhiraja

In the context of the Cobb-Douglas productivity model we consider the $N \times N$ input-output linkage matrix $W$ for a network of $N$ firms $f_1, f_2, \cdots, f_N$. The associated influence vector $v_w$ of $W$ is defined in terms of the…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Jesse Geneson , Alvin Moon , Nicolas Robles , Aaron Strong , Jonathan Welburn

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Farzad Pourbabaee , Omid Shams Solari

We propose and analyze estimators for statistical functionals of one or more distributions under nonparametric assumptions. Our estimators are based on the theory of influence functions, which appear in the semiparametric statistics…

Online reinforcement learning (RL) excels in complex, safety-critical domains but suffers from sample inefficiency, training instability, and limited interpretability. Data attribution provides a principled way to trace model behavior back…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Yuzheng Hu , Fan Wu , Haotian Ye , David Forsyth , James Zou , Nan Jiang , Jiaqi W. Ma , Han Zhao

To infer a function value on a specific point $x$, it is essential to assign higher weights to the points closer to $x$, which is called local polynomial / multivariable regression. In many practical cases, a limited sample size may ruin…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-30 Yanwu Gu , Dong Xia

Most research designing novel predictive models, or employing existing ones, assumes that training and testing data are independent and identically distributed. In practice, the data encountered at serving time often deviate from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Hanyu Duan , Yi Yang , Ahmed Abbasi , Kar Yan Tam

Influence functions approximate the effect of training samples in test-time predictions and have a wide variety of applications in machine learning interpretability and uncertainty estimation. A commonly-used (first-order) influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Samyadeep Basu , Philip Pope , Soheil Feizi

We study offline change point localization and inference in dynamic multilayer random dot product graphs (D-MRDPGs), where at each time point, a multilayer network is observed with shared node latent positions and time-varying,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-30 Fan Wang , Kyle Ritscher , Yik Lun Kei , Xin Ma , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Performative prediction is an emerging paradigm in machine learning that addresses scenarios where the model's prediction may induce a shift in the distribution of the data it aims to predict. Current works in this field often rely on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-03 Guangzheng Zhong , Yang Liu , Jiming Liu

We introduce and study two new inferential challenges associated with the sequential detection of change in a high-dimensional mean vector. First, we seek a confidence interval for the changepoint, and second, we estimate the set of indices…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-03 Yudong Chen , Tengyao Wang , Richard J. Samworth

Influence functions provide a principled method to assess the contribution of individual training samples to a specific target. Yet, their high computational costs limit their applications on large-scale models and datasets. Existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Xinyu Zhou , Simin Fan , Martin Jaggi

Perceptual losses have emerged as powerful tools for training networks to enhance Low-Dose Computed Tomography (LDCT) images, offering an alternative to traditional pixel-wise losses such as Mean Squared Error, which often lead to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Gabriel A. Viana , Luis F. Alves Pereira , Tsang Ing Ren , George D. C. Cavalcanti , Jan Sijbers