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Strong invariance principles describe the error term of a Brownian approximation of the partial sums of a stochastic process. While these strong approximation results have many applications, the results for continuous-time settings have…
We give a simple algebraic derivation of a useful determinantal identity for multilevel systems such as random matrix chains and finite determinantal point processes, with applications to the calculation of point correlators, gap…
We consider the problem of inferring a latent function in a probabilistic model of data. When dependencies of the latent function are specified by a Gaussian process and the data likelihood is complex, efficient computation often involve…
Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In…
Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…
The problem of finding the expected value of a statistic of a locally stable point process in a bounded region is addressed. We propose an adaptive importance sampling for solving the problem. In our proposal, we restrict the importance…
The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…
We introduce the Hamming Ball Sampler, a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, for efficient inference in statistical models involving high-dimensional discrete state spaces. The sampling scheme uses an auxiliary variable construction…
It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…
We consider mixture models where location parameters are a priori encouraged to be well separated. We explore a class of determinantal point process (DPP) mixture models, which provide the desired notion of separation or repulsion. Instead…
In this paper we consider parameter estimation for discretely observed diffusion processes. In particular, we focus on data that are observed at low frequency and methodology that can estimate parameters with uncertainty quantification.…
We propose a method to efficiently integrate truncated probability densities. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from a probability density matching the function being integrated. The required normalisation or…
We construct a non-decreasing pure jump Markov process, whose jump measure heavily depends on the values taken by the process. We determine the singularity spectrum of this process, which turns out to be random and to depend locally on the…
In Monte-Carlo methods the Markov processes used to sample a given target distribution usually satisfy detailed balance, i.e. they are time-reversible. However, relatively recent results have demonstrated that appropriate reversible and…
Use each of n exact samples as the initial state for a MCMC sampler run for m steps. We give confidence intervals for accuracy of estimators which are always valid and which, in certain settings, are almost as good as the intervals one…
Generative diffusions are a powerful class of Monte Carlo samplers that leverage bridging Markov processes to approximate complex, high-dimensional distributions, such as those found in image processing and language models. Despite their…
This paper deals with the question of conditional sampling and prediction for the class of stationary max-stable processes which allow for a mixed moving maxima representation. We develop an exact procedure for conditional sampling using…
Discrete mixture models are routinely used for density estimation and clustering. While conducting inferences on the cluster-specific parameters, current frequentist and Bayesian methods often encounter problems when clusters are placed too…
Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…