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In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-11-15 Matthias Morzfeld , Marcus S. Day , Ray W. Grout , George Shu Heng Pau , Stefan A. Finsterle , John B. Bell

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of Monte Carlo methods that are used to obtain random samples of a high dimensional random variable in a sequential fashion. Many problems encountered in applications often involve different…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-20 Chencheng Cai , Rong Chen , Ming Lin

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a class of techniques to sample approximately from any sequence of probability distributions using a combination of importance sampling and resampling steps. This paper is concerned with the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-03-05 Pierre Del Moral , Arnaud Doucet , Ajay Jasra

For many complex simulation tasks spanning areas such as healthcare, engineering, and finance, Monte Carlo (MC) methods are invaluable due to their unbiased estimates and precise error quantification. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulations…

Uncertainty analysis in the outcomes of model predictions is a key element in decision-based material design to establish confidence in the models and evaluate the fidelity of models. Uncertainty Propagation (UP) is a technique to determine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Danial Khatamsaz , Vahid Attari , Raymundo Arroyave , Douglas L. Allaire

We derive the optimal proposal density for Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) (or Population Monte Carlo, PMC). The criterion for optimality is that the SMC/PMC-ABC sampler maximise the effective…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Justin Alsing , Benjamin D. Wandelt , Stephen M. Feeney

In many problems, complex non-Gaussian and/or nonlinear models are required to accurately describe a physical system of interest. In such cases, Monte Carlo algorithms are remarkably flexible and extremely powerful approaches to solve such…

Computation · Statistics 2015-04-23 Thi Le Thu Nguyen , Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters , Yves Delignon

Model comparison for the purposes of selection, averaging and validation is a problem found throughout statistics. Within the Bayesian paradigm, these problems all require the calculation of the posterior probabilities of models within a…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-08 Yan Zhou , Adam M Johansen , John A D Aston

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-24 Minas Karamanis , Uroš Seljak

Sampling-based motion planning methods, while effective in high-dimensional spaces, often suffer from inefficiencies due to irregular sampling distributions, leading to suboptimal exploration of the configuration space. In this paper, we…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Makram Chahine , T. Konstantin Rusch , Zach J. Patterson , Daniela Rus

Estimating high-quality images while also quantifying their uncertainty are two desired features in an image reconstruction algorithm for solving ill-posed inverse problems. In this paper, we propose plug-and-play Monte Carlo (PMC) as a…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-08-29 Yu Sun , Zihui Wu , Yifan Chen , Berthy T. Feng , Katherine L. Bouman

Population Monte Carlo simulations in the form commonly referred to as population annealing can serve as a useful meta-algorithm for simulating systems with complex free-energy landscapes. In the present paper we provide an easily…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-17 P. L. Ebert , D. Gessert , W. Janke , M. Weigel

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

The problem of sampling constrained continuous distributions has frequently appeared in many machine/statistical learning models. Many Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) sampling methods have been adapted to handle different types of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-02-21 Shiwei Lan , Lulu Kang

We give a cross-disciplinary survey on ``population'' Monte Carlo algorithms. In these algorithms, a set of ``walkers'' or ``particles'' is used as a representation of a high-dimensional vector. The computation is carried out by a random…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 Yukito IBA

Sequential Monte Carlo algorithms, or Particle Filters, are Bayesian filtering algorithms which propagate in time a discrete and random approximation of the a posteriori distribution of interest. Such algorithms are based on Importance…

Computation · Statistics 2017-10-11 Roland Lamberti , Yohan Petetin , François Desbouvries , François Septier

In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-10 Ahmed Kebaier , Jérôme Lelong

Estimating the density of a continuous random variable X has been studied extensively in statistics, in the setting where n independent observations of X are given a priori and one wishes to estimate the density from that. Popular methods…

Computation · Statistics 2021-09-09 Pierre L'Ecuyer , Florian Puchhammer

The performance of the Monte Carlo sampling methods relies on the crucial choice of a proposal density. The notion of optimality is fundamental to design suitable adaptive procedures of the proposal density within Monte Carlo schemes. This…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-24 Fernando Llorente , Luca Martino