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The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-09-17 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

In this paper we analyse financial implications of exchangeability and similar properties of finite dimensional random vectors. We show how these properties are reflected in prices of some basket options in view of the well-known put-call…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2011-04-05 Ilya Molchanov , Michael Schmutz

This paper studies nonparametric identification in market level demand models for differentiated products with heterogeneous consumers. We consider a general class of models that allows for the individual specific coefficients to vary…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-19 Fabian Dunker , Stefan Hoderlein , Hiroaki Kaido

We present a new latent-variable model employing a Gaussian mixture integrated with a feature selection procedure (the Bernoulli part of the model) which together form a "Latent Bernoulli-Gauss" distribution. The model is applied to MAP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-07-06 Amnon Shashua , Gabi Pragier

For general penalized Markov processes with soft killing, we propose a simple criterion ensuring uniform convergence of conditional distributions in Wasserstein distance to a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give several examples of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-13 Nicolas Champagnat , Edouard Strickler , Denis Villemonais

According to the Wiener-Hopf factorization, the characteristic function $\varphi$ of any probability distribution $\mu$ on $\mathbb{R}$ can be decomposed in a unique way as…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-29 Loïc Chaumont , Ron Doney

This paper presents comparison results and establishes risk bounds for credit portfolios within classes of Bernoulli mixture models, assuming conditionally independent defaults that are stochastically increasing with a common risk factor.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-24 Jonathan Ansari , Eva Lütkebohmert

The implications of one gluon exchange generated configuration mixing in the Chiral Quark Model ($\chi$QM$_{gcm}$) with SU(3) and axial U(1) symmetry breakings are discussed in the context of proton flavor and spin structure as well as the…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-10-31 Harleen Dahiya , Manmohan Gupta

We examine the issue of stability of probability in reasoning about complex systems with uncertainty in structure. Normally, propositions are viewed as probability functions on an abstract random graph where it is implicitly assumed that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-12-14 Subhash Kak

In this paper, we characterize compatibility of distributions and probability measures on a measurable space. For a set of indices $\mathcal J$, we say that the tuples of probability measures $(Q_i)_{i\in \mathcal J} $ and distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-16 Jie Shen , Yi Shen , Bin Wang , Ruodu Wang

The unit selection problem aims to identify a set of individuals who are most likely to exhibit a desired mode of behavior, for example, selecting individuals who would respond one way if encouraged and a different way if not encouraged.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Ang Li , Judea Pearl

The interpretation of feature importance in machine learning models is challenging when features are dependent. Permutation feature importance (PFI) ignores such dependencies, which can cause misleading interpretations due to extrapolation.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-09 Christoph Molnar , Gunnar König , Bernd Bischl , Giuseppe Casalicchio

We study II_1 factors M and N associated with good generalized Bernoulli actions of groups having an infinite almost normal subgroup with the relative property (T). We prove the following rigidity result: every finite index M-N-bimodule (in…

Operator Algebras · Mathematics 2009-01-20 Stefaan Vaes

Permutation tests are a powerful and flexible approach to inference via resampling. As computational methods become more ubiquitous in the statistics curriculum, use of permutation tests has become more tractable. At the heart of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-09 Johanna Hardin , Lauren Quesada , Julie Ye , Nicholas J. Horton

A simple mechanism for allocating indivisible resources is sequential allocation in which agents take turns to pick items. We focus on possible and necessary allocation problems, checking whether allocations of a given form occur in some or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-12-09 Haris Aziz , Toby Walsh , Lirong Xia

The study of sums of possibly associated Bernoulli random variables has been hampered by an asymmetry between positive correlation and negative correlation. The Conway-Maxwell Binomial (COMB) distribution and its multivariate extension, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-04-08 Joseph B. Kadane

The need to condition distributional properties such as expectation, variance, and entropy arises in algorithmic fairness, model simplification, robustness and many other areas. At face value however, distributional properties are not…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Zenna Tavares , Xin Zhang , Edgar Minaysan , Javier Burroni , Rajesh Ranganath , Armando Solar Lezama

We present new sampling methods in finite population that allow to control the joint inclusion probabilities of units and especially the spreading of sampled units in the population. They are based on the use of renewal chains and…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-12 Yves Tillé , Lionel Qualité , Matthieu Wilhelm

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Edoardo M. Airoldi , Thiago Costa , Federico Bassetti , Fabrizio Leisen , Michele Guindani

There is currently a renewed interest in the Bayesian predictive approach to statistics. This paper offers a review on foundational concepts and focuses on predictive modeling, which by directly reasoning on prediction, bypasses inferential…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Sandra Fortini , Sonia Petrone
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