English
Related papers

Related papers: Uncertainty quantification for the horseshoe

200 papers

Bayesian methods provide a natural means for uncertainty quantification, that is, credible sets can be easily obtained from the posterior distribution. But is this uncertainty quantification valid in the sense that the posterior credible…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Ryan Martin , Bo Ning

We investigate the frequentist properties of Bayesian procedures for estimation based on the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. Previous theoretical results assumed that the sparsity level, that is, the number of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-14 Stéphanie van der Pas , Botond Szabó , Aad van der Vaart

In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-05 Ismael Castillo , Botond Szabo

We investigate the problem of constructing Bayesian credible sets that are honest and adaptive for the L2-loss over a scale of Sobolev classes with regularity ranging between [D; 2D], for some given D in the context of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-24 Botond Szabo , Aad van der Vaart , Harry van Zanten

Many recently developed Bayesian methods have focused on sparse signal detection. However, much less work has been done addressing the natural follow-up question: how to make valid inferences for the magnitude of those signals after…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-02 Spencer Woody , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , James G. Scott

We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-11 Botond Szabó , A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

The horseshoe prior has proven to be a noteworthy alternative for sparse Bayesian estimation, but has previously suffered from two problems. First, there has been no systematic way of specifying a prior for the global shrinkage…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-12-18 Juho Piironen , Aki Vehtari

We investigate the frequentist coverage properties of credible sets resulting in from Gaussian process priors with squared exponential covariance kernel. First we show that by selecting the scaling hyper-parameter using the maximum marginal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-04-03 Amine Hadji , Botond Szábo

Predictive inference in the sparse Gaussian sequence model has received considerably less attention than its non-sparse, finite-sample counterpart. Existing work has largely been confined to discrete mixture priors. In this paper, we study…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-21 Percy S. Zhai , Veronika Ročková

We revisit empirical Bayes discrimination detection, focusing on uncertainty arising from both partial identification and sampling variability. While prior work has mostly focused on partial identification, we find that some empirical…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-19 Jiaying Gu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Azeem M. Shaikh

We consider the problem of Bayesian regression with trustworthy uncertainty quantification. We define that the uncertainty quantification is trustworthy if the ground truth can be captured by intervals dependent on the predictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-30 Zhenyuan Yuan , Thinh T. Doan

Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Aditi Sen , Masayo Y. Hirose , Partha Lahiri

Frequentist robust variable selection has been extensively investigated in high-dimensional regression. Despite success, developing the corresponding statistical inference procedures remains a challenging task. Recently, tackling this…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-24 Kun Fan , Srijana Subedi , Vishmi Ridmika Dissanayake Pathiranage , Cen Wu

Until recently mass-mapping techniques for weak gravitational lensing convergence reconstruction have lacked a principled statistical framework upon which to quantify reconstruction uncertainties, without making strong assumptions of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2021-02-08 Matthew A. Price , Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra , Thomas D. Kitching

In the general signal+noise model we construct an empirical Bayes posterior which we then use for uncertainty quantification for the unknown, possibly sparse, signal. We introduce a novel excessive bias restriction (EBR) condition, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-13 Eduard Belitser , Nurzhan Nurushev

We present a method of constructing statistical intervals that obtain a natural middle ground between Bayesian and frequentist statistical intervals, previously unexplored in literature: To a p% Bayesian credible interval we should assign a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Tim Ritmeester

Sparse model identification enables nonlinear dynamical system discovery from data. However, the control of false discoveries for sparse model identification is challenging, especially in the low-data and high-noise limit. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-28 L. Mars Gao , Urban Fasel , Steven L. Brunton , J. Nathan Kutz

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

Being able to reliably assess not only the \emph{accuracy} but also the \emph{uncertainty} of models' predictions is an important endeavour in modern machine learning. Even if the model generating the data and labels is known, computing the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Lucas Clarté , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

This paper studies the sparse normal mean models under the empirical Bayes framework. We focus on the mixture priors with an atom at zero and a density component centered at a data driven location determined by maximizing the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-20 Xianyang Zhang , Anirban Bhattacharya
‹ Prev 1 2 3 10 Next ›