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Interactions in time-varying complex systems are often very heterogeneous at the topological level (who interacts with whom) and at the temporal level (when interactions occur and how often). While it is known that temporal heterogeneities…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-21 Juan Ignacio Perotti , Hang-Hyun Jo , Petter Holme , Jari Saramäki

Spreading processes are often modelled as a stochastic dynamics occurring on top of a given network with edge weights corresponding to the transmission probabilities. Knowledge of veracious transmission probabilities is essential for…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-09-01 Andrey Y. Lokhov

In evolving complex systems such as air traffic and social organizations, collective effects emerge from their many components' dynamic interactions. While the dynamic interactions can be represented by temporal networks with nodes and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-09-21 Tiago P. Peixoto , Martin Rosvall

A model has been proposed to simulate the evolution of interpersonal relationships in a social group. The small social community is simply assumed as an undirected and weighted graph, where individuals are denoted by vertices, and the…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Bo Hu , Xin-Yu Jiang , Bing-Hong Wang , Jun-Feng Ding , Tao-Zhou , Yan-Bo Xie

We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to identify communities in networks for which we do not observe the edges directly, but instead observe a series of interdependent signals for each of the nodes. Fitting the model provides an…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-02-12 Till Hoffmann , Leto Peel , Renaud Lambiotte , Nick S. Jones

We are interested in modeling networks in which the connectivity among the nodes and node attributes are random variables and interact with each other. We propose a probabilistic model that allows one to formulate jointly a probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Haiyan Cai

Sequences of correlated binary patterns can represent many time-series data including text, movies, and biological signals. These patterns may be described by weighted combinations of a few dominant structures that underpin specific…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-29 Jimmy Gaudreault , Arunabh Saxena , Hideaki Shimazaki

Exchangeable models for countable vertex-labeled graphs cannot replicate the large sample behaviors of sparsity and power law degree distribution observed in many network datasets. Out of this mathematical impossibility emerges the question…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-24 Harry Crane , Walter Dempsey

Deep ensembles have emerged as a powerful technique for improving predictive performance and enhancing model robustness across various applications by leveraging model diversity. However, traditional deep ensemble methods are often…

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal

The increasing availability of multiple network data has highlighted the need for statistical models for heterogeneous populations of networks. A convenient framework makes use of metrics to measure similarity between networks. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Francesco Barile , Simón Lunagómez , Bernardo Nipoti

Gaussian processes have become a popular tool for nonparametric regression because of their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, they often use stationary kernels, which limit the expressiveness of the model and may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Zachary James , Joseph Guinness

We propose a novel Bayesian approach to modelling nonlinear alignments of time series based on latent shared information. We apply the method to the real-world problem of finding common structure in the sensor data of wind turbines…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Markus Kaiser , Clemens Otte , Thomas Runkler , Carl Henrik Ek

The Dirichlet process and its extension, the Pitman-Yor process, are stochastic processes that take probability distributions as a parameter. These processes can be stacked up to form a hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian model. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-23 Kar Wai Lim , Wray Buntine , Changyou Chen , Lan Du

In this thesis we contribute to the understanding of the pivotal role of the temporal dimension in networked social systems, previously neglected and now uncovered by the data revolution recently blossomed in this field. To this aim, we…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-08-15 Michele Starnini

Recently, evolving networks are becoming a suitable form to model many real-world complex systems, due to their peculiarities to represent the systems and their constituting entities, the interactions between the entities and the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-09-21 Angelo Impedovo , Corrado Loglisci , Michelangelo Ceci

Data collection at a massive scale is becoming ubiquitous in a wide variety of settings, from vast offline databases to streaming real-time information. Learning algorithms deployed in such contexts must rely on single-pass inference, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-27 Christoforos Anagnostopoulos , Robert B. Gramacy

We consider the problem of aggregating models learned from sequestered, possibly heterogeneous datasets. Exploiting tools from Bayesian nonparametrics, we develop a general meta-modeling framework that learns shared global latent structures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-04 Mikhail Yurochkin , Mayank Agarwal , Soumya Ghosh , Kristjan Greenewald , Trong Nghia Hoang

We consider random networks whose dynamics is described by a rate equation, with transition rates $w_{nm}$ that form a symmetric matrix. The long time evolution of the system is characterized by a diffusion coefficient $D$. In one dimension…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2012-12-04 Yaron de Leeuw , Doron Cohen

Parametric Bayesian modeling offers a powerful and flexible toolbox for machine learning. Yet the model, however detailed, may still be wrong, and this can make inferences untrustworthy. In this paper we introduce a new class of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-03 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , Sohrab Salehi , Yixin Wang , David M. Blei