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We consider the problem of modeling multivariate time series with parsimonious dynamical models which can be represented as sparse dynamic Bayesian networks with few latent nodes. This structure translates into a sparse plus low rank model.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-09-29 Mattia Zorzi , Alessandro Chiuso

This article proposes methods to model nonstationary temporal graph processes. This corresponds to modelling the observation of edge variables (relationships between objects) indicating interactions between pairs of nodes (or objects)…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-07 Maria Suveges , Sofia C. Olhede

We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Zoey Yi Zhao , Meng Xie , Mike West

We present a scalable nonparametric Bayesian method to perform network reconstruction from observed functional behavior that at the same time infers the communities present in the network. We show that the joint reconstruction with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-09-23 Tiago P. Peixoto

Datasets containing large samples of time-to-event data arising from several small heterogeneous groups are commonly encountered in statistics. This presents problems as they cannot be pooled directly due to their heterogeneity or analyzed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-05 Alexandre Piché , Russell Steele , Ian Shrier , Stephanie Long

A plethora of networks is being collected in a growing number of fields, including disease transmission, international relations, social interactions, and others. As data streams continue to grow, the complexity associated with these highly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-11 Daniele Durante , Nabanita Mukherjee , Rebecca C. Steorts

In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-08-12 Ricardo Silva , Robert B. Gramacy

In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2010-03-15 Ricardo Silva , Robert B. Gramacy

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model including time-varying predictors in dynamic network inference. The model is applied to infer the dependence structure among financial markets during the global financial crisis, estimating effects…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-08 Daniele Durante , David B. Dunson

Semi-supervised learning on real-world graphs is frequently challenged by heterophily, where the observed graph is unreliable or label-disassortative. Many existing graph neural networks either rely on a fixed adjacency structure or attempt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Yoonhyuk Choi , Jiho Choi , Chanran Kim , Yumin Lee , Hawon Shin , Yeowon Jeon , Minjeong Kim , Jiwoo Kang

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-26 Elahe Ghalebi , Baharan Mirzasoleiman , Radu Grosu , Jure Leskovec

This study addresses the challenge of predicting network dynamics, such as forecasting disease spread in social networks or estimating species populations in predator-prey networks. Accurate predictions in large networks are difficult due…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-08-23 Rui Luo

We study the problem of non-Bayesian social learning with uncertain models, in which a network of agents seek to cooperatively identify the state of the world based on a sequence of observed signals. In contrast with the existing…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-11 César A. Uribe , James Z. Hare , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

Count-weighted temporal networks often exhibit unequal dispersion in the edge weights, which cannot be fully explained by modelling observational heterogeneity through latent factors in the conditional mean. Therefore, we propose new…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-15 Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin , Antonio Peruzzi

While the vast majority of the literature on models for temporal networks focuses on binary graphs, often one can associate a weight to each link. In such cases the data are better described by a weighted, or valued, network. An important…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-02 Domenico Di Gangi , Giacomo Bormetti , Fabrizio Lillo

Most instruments - formalisms, concepts, and metrics - for social networks analysis fail to capture their dynamics. Typical systems exhibit different scales of dynamics, ranging from the fine-grain dynamics of interactions (which recently…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-02-04 Nicola Santoro , Walter Quattrociocchi , Paola Flocchini , Arnaud Casteigts , Frederic Amblard

Network meta-analysis (NMA) usually provides estimates of the relative effects with the highest possible precision. However, sparse networks with few available studies and limited direct evidence can arise, threatening the robustness and…

This paper studies a statistical network model generated by a large number of randomly sized overlapping communities, where any pair of nodes sharing a community is linked with probability $q$ via the community. In the special case with…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-26 Joona Karjalainen , Johan S. H. van Leeuwaarden , Lasse Leskelä

We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-09 Adrián Pérez-Herrero , Paulo Félix , Jesús Presedo , Carl Henrik Ek

We extend the well-known $\beta$-model for directed graphs to dynamic network setting, where we observe snapshots of adjacency matrices at different time points. We propose a kernel-smoothed likelihood approach for estimating $2n$…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-22 Yuqing Du , Lianqiang Qu , Ting Yan , Yuan Zhang