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This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum regret to evaluate the performance of treatment rules. The specific new contribution is to study as-if optimization…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-10-05 Charles F. Manski

We propose a unified framework for adaptive routing in multitask, multimodal prediction settings where data heterogeneity and task interactions vary across samples. Motivated by applications in psychotherapy where structured assessments and…

Two ideas taken from Bayesian optimization and classifier systems are presented for personnel scheduling based on choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for each persons assignment. Unlike our previous work of using genetic…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2010-07-05 Jingpeng Li , Uwe Aickelin

Crowdsourcing platforms emerged as popular venues for purchasing human intelligence at low cost for large volume of tasks. As many low-paid workers are prone to give noisy answers, a common practice is to add redundancy by assigning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-09 Jungseul Ok , Sewoong Oh , Yunhun Jang , Jinwoo Shin , Yung Yi

Precision medicine is an emerging field that takes into account individual heterogeneity to inform better clinical practice. In clinical trials, the evaluation of treatment effect heterogeneity is an important component, and recently, many…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-24 Yuejia Xu , Angela M. Wood , Brian D. M. Tom

Policy-makers are often faced with the task of distributing a limited supply of resources. To support decision-making in these settings, statisticians are confronted with two challenges: estimands are defined by allocation strategies that…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-01 Aaron L. Sarvet , Julien D. Laurendeau , Mats J. Stensrud

Individualized treatment decisions can improve health outcomes, but using data to make these decisions in a reliable, precise, and generalizable way is challenging with a single dataset. Leveraging multiple randomized controlled trials…

Decision-making in personalized medicine such as cancer therapy or critical care must often make choices for dosage combinations, i.e., multiple continuous treatments. Existing work for this task has modeled the effect of multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-30 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Clinical trials usually target average treatment effects, but treatment decisions are made for individuals. This tension motivates a common criticism of evidence-based medicine: a treatment that is beneficial on average may be inappropriate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-29 Zach Shahn , Mats Stensrud

Clinical decision support tools rooted in machine learning and optimization can provide significant value to healthcare providers, including through better management of intensive care units. In particular, it is important that the patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Fernando Lejarza , Jacob Calvert , Misty M Attwood , Daniel Evans , Qingqing Mao

Meta-Learning is a family of methods that use a set of interrelated tasks to learn a model that can quickly learn a new query task from a possibly small contextual dataset. In this study, we use a probabilistic framework to formalize what…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-03 Shin-ichi Maeda , Toshiki Nakanishi , Masanori Koyama

We consider a simulation optimization problem for a context-dependent decision-making. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to capture the performance clustering phenomena of context-dependent designs. Under a Bayesian framework, we develop…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-15 Haidong Li , Henry Lam , Yijie Peng

The empirical risk minimization approach to data-driven decision making requires access to training data drawn under the same conditions as those that will be faced when the decision rule is deployed. However, in a number of settings, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-17 Roshni Sahoo , Lihua Lei , Stefan Wager

When devising a course of treatment for a patient, doctors often have little quantitative evidence on which to base their decisions, beyond their medical education and published clinical trials. Stanford Health Care alone has millions of…

Clustering is a technique for the analysis of datasets obtained by empirical studies in several disciplines with a major application for biomedical research. Essentially, clustering algorithms are executed by machines aiming at finding…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-09-30 Diego Ulisse Pizzagalli , Santiago Fernandez Gonzalez , Rolf Krause

The paper presents a machine learning approach to design digital interfaces that can dynamically adapt to different users and usage strategies. The algorithm uses Bayesian statistics to model users' browsing behavior, focusing on their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Eric Petit , Denis Chêne

Optimization of complex functions, such as the output of computer simulators, is a difficult task that has received much attention in the literature. A less studied problem is that of optimization under unknown constraints, i.e., when the…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-07-06 Robert B. Gramacy , Herbert K. H. Lee

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-18 Zilong Wang , Turgay Ayer , Shihao Yang

Clustering is commonly performed as an initial analysis step for uncovering structure in 'omics datasets, e.g. to discover molecular subtypes of disease. The high-throughput, high-dimensional nature of these datasets means that they provide…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-02 Paul D. W. Kirk , Filippo Pagani , Sylvia Richardson

In precision medicine, identifying optimal sequences of decision rules, termed dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs), is an important undertaking. One approach investigators may take to infer about optimal DTRs is via Bayesian dynamic Marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-09 Daniel Rodriguez Duque , David A. Stephens , Erica E. M. Moodie