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Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-17 Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy , Shubhabrata Das

Multivariate categorical data occur in many applications of machine learning. One of the main difficulties with these vectors of categorical variables is sparsity. The number of possible observations grows exponentially with vector length,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Yarin Gal , Yutian Chen , Zoubin Ghahramani

We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-19 Seppo Virtanen , Arto Klami , Suleiman A. Khan , Samuel Kaski

This paper introduces Bayesian frameworks for tackling various aspects of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, leveraging a probabilistic interpretation of MCDM methods and challenges. By harnessing the flexibility of Bayesian…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Majid Mohammadi

Three different inferential problems related to a two dimensional categorical data from a Bayesian perspective have been discussed in this article. Conjugate prior distribution with symmetric and asymmetric hyper parameters are considered.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-05 Samyajoy Pal , Christian Heumann , M. Subbiah

We propose a scalable Bayesian preference learning method for jointly predicting the preferences of individuals as well as the consensus of a crowd from pairwise labels. Peoples' opinions often differ greatly, making it difficult to predict…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-13 Edwin Simpson , Iryna Gurevych

The statistical analysis of group studies in neuroscience is particularly challenging due to the complex spatio-temporal nature of the data, its multiple levels and the inter-individual variability in brain responses. In this respect,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-15 Nicolò Margaritella , Vanda Inácio , Ruth King

Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-08 Vitor G. C. da Silva , Kelly C. M. Gonçalves , João B. M. Pereira

We propose an interdisciplinary framework that combines Bayesian predictive inference, a well-established tool in Machine Learning, with Formal Methods rooted in the computer science community. Bayesian predictive inference allows for…

Computation · Statistics 2025-08-21 Laura Vana , Ennio Visconti , Laura Nenzi , Annalisa Cadonna , Gregor Kastner

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-21 Ioan Gabriel Bucur , Tom Claassen , Tom Heskes

Factorization machines (FMs) are a powerful tool for regression and classification in the context of sparse observations, that has been successfully applied to collaborative filtering, especially when side information over users or items is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Jill-Jênn Vie , Tomas Rigaux , Hisashi Kashima

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando

Heterogeneous data from multiple populations, sub-groups, or sources is often represented as a ``mixture model'' with a single latent class influencing all of the observed covariates. Heterogeneity can be resolved at multiple levels by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Bijan Mazaheri , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

Bayesian forecasting is developed in multivariate time series analysis for causal inference. Causal evaluation of sequentially observed time series data from control and treated units focuses on the impacts of interventions using…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-21 Graham Tierney , Christoph Hellmayr , Greg Barkimer , Kevin Li , Mike West

Bayes Factors, the Bayesian tool for hypothesis testing, are receiving increasing attention in the literature. Compared to their frequentist rivals ($p$-values or test statistics), Bayes Factors have the conceptual advantage of providing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-21 Stavros Nikolakopoulos , Björn Alfons Edmar , Ioannis Ntzoufras

We develop a Bayesian approach for selecting the model which is the most supported by the data within a class of marginal models for categorical variables formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalised logits…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-21 Francesco Bartolucci , Luisa Scaccia , Alessio Farcomeni

The assumption of group heterogeneity has become popular in panel data models. We develop a constrained Bayesian grouped estimator that exploits researchers' prior beliefs on groups in a form of pairwise constraints, indicating whether a…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-31 Boyuan Zhang

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-09-24 Mohammad Hossein Namjoo

Focusing on a specific crowd dynamics situation, including real life experiments and measurements, our paper targets a twofold aim: (1) we present a Bayesian probabilistic method to estimate the value and the uncertainty (in the form of a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-04-12 Alessandro Corbetta , Adrian Muntean , Federico Toschi , Kiamars Vafayi

Classifier combination methods need to make best use of the outputs of multiple, imperfect classifiers to enable higher accuracy classifications. In many situations, such as when human decisions need to be combined, the base decisions can…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-06-11 Edwin Simpson , Stephen Roberts , Ioannis Psorakis , Arfon Smith
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