Related papers: Consider avoiding the .05 significance level
The mid-p-value is a proposed improvement on the ordinary p-value for the case where the test statistic is partially or completely discrete. In this case, the ordinary p-value is conservative, meaning that its null distribution is larger…
$P$-values that are derived from continuously distributed test statistics are typically uniformly distributed on $(0,1)$ under least favorable parameter configurations (LFCs) in the null hypothesis. Conservativeness of a $p$-value $P$…
There is a well-known problem in Null Hypothesis Significance Testing: many statistically significant results fail to replicate in subsequent experiments. We show that this problem arises because standard `point-form null' significance…
A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of…
We present the expected values from p-value hacking as a choice of the minimum p-value among $m$ independents tests, which can be considerably lower than the "true" p-value, even with a single trial, owing to the extreme skewness of the…
External validity is often questionable in empirical research, especially in randomized experiments due to the trade-off between internal validity and external validity. To quantify the robustness of external validity, one must first…
Modern statistics provides an ever-expanding toolkit for estimating unknown parameters. Consequently, applied statisticians frequently face a difficult decision: retain a parameter estimate from a familiar method or replace it with an…
Statistical methods are indispensable to scientific inference. However, there exists a longstanding tension across a wide range of scientific disciplines about the role that ``context'' should play in the application of statistical methods…
A recent proposal to "redefine statistical significance" (Benjamin, et al. Nature Human Behaviour, 2017) claims that false positive rates "would immediately improve" by factors greater than two and replication rates would double simply by…
Wald's sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is a cornerstone of sequential analysis. Based on desired type-I, II error levels $\alpha, \beta$, it stops when the likelihood ratio crosses certain thresholds, guaranteeing optimality of the…
Estimating the parameters from $k$ independent Bin$(n,p)$ random variables, when both parameters $n$ and $p$ are unknown, is relevant to a variety of applications. It is particularly difficult if $n$ is large and $p$ is small. Over the past…
This article gives a conceptual review of the e-value, ev(H|X) -- the epistemic value of hypothesis H given observations X. This statistical significance measure was developed in order to allow logically coherent and consistent tests of…
We test the null hypothesis that two parameters $(\mu_1,\mu_2)$ have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators $(\hat{\mu}_1,\hat{\mu}_2)$ are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous…
A key objective in conducting a Bell test is to quantify the statistical evidence against a local-hidden variable model (LHVM) given that we can collect only a finite number of trials in any experiment. The notion of statistical evidence is…
I reject the following null hypothesis: {H0: your data are normal}. Such drastic decision is motivated by theoretical reasons, and applies to your current data, the past ones, and the future ones. While this situation may appear…
Most scientific disciplines use significance testing to draw conclusions about experimental or observational data. This classical approach provides a theoretical guarantee for controlling the number of false positives across a set of…
We consider the problem of comparing two Poisson parameters from the Bayesian perspective. Kawasaki and Miyaoka (2012b) proposed the Bayesian index $P(\lambda_1 < \lambda_2 | X_1,X_2)$ and expressed it using the hypergeometric series. In…
I proposed (8, 1, 3) that p values should be supplemented by an estimate of the false positive risk (FPR). FPR was defined as the probability that, if you claim that there is a real effect on the basis of p value from a single unbiased…
We re-analyse recent Cepheid data to estimate the Hubble parameter $H_0$ by using Bayesian hyper-parameters (HPs). We consider the two data sets from Riess et al 2011 and 2016 (labelled R11 and R16, with R11 containing less than half the…
We extend a classical test of subsphericity, based on the first two moments of the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix, to the high-dimensional regime where the signal eigenvalues of the covariance matrix diverge to infinity and…