Related papers: Non-failable approximation method for conditioned …
We present new algorithms and fast implementations to find efficient approximations for modelling stochastic processes. For many numerical computations it is essential to develop finite approximations for stochastic processes. While the…
Conditional particle filters (CPFs) are powerful smoothing algorithms for general nonlinear/non-Gaussian hidden Markov models. However, CPFs can be inefficient or difficult to apply with diffuse initial distributions, which are common in…
Reinforced processes are known to provide a stochastic representation for the quasi-stationary distribution of a given killed Markov process - describing the killed Markov process at fixed time instants. In this paper we shall adapt the…
We present a data-driven framework for reachability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that requires no explicit model. A denoising diffusion probabilistic model learns the time-evolving state distribution of a dynamical system from…
The objective of this paper is to investigate a new numerical method for the approximation of the self-diffusion matrix of a tagged particle process defined on a grid. While standard numerical methods make use of long-time averages of…
We consider chemical reaction networks modeled by a discrete state and continuous in time Markov process for the vector copy number of the species and provide a novel particle filter method for state and parameter estimation based on exact…
This paper deals with control of partially observable discrete-time stochastic systems. It introduces and studies Markov Decision Processes with Incomplete Information and with semi-uniform Feller transition probabilities. The important…
In this paper we present a novel method for estimating the parameters of a parametric diffusion processes. Our approach is based on a closed-form Maximum Likelihood estimator for an approximating Continuous Time Markov Chain (CTMC) of the…
This paper presents new sufficient conditions for convergence and asymptotic or exponential stability of a stochastic discrete-time system, under which the constructed Lyapunov function always decreases in expectation along the system's…
We develop exact Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for discretely-sampled, directly and indirectly observed diffusions. The qualification "exact" refers to the fact that the invariant and limiting distribution of the Markov chains is the…
We propose polynomial-time algorithms to minimise labelled Markov chains whose transition probabilities are not known exactly, have been perturbed, or can only be obtained by sampling. Our algorithms are based on a new notion of an…
We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is…
Confined active particles constitute simple, yet realistic, examples of systems that converge into a non-equilibrium steady state. We investigate a run-and-tumble particle in one spatial dimension, trapped by an external potential, with a…
We establish general conditions under which there exists uniform in time convergence between a stochastic process and its approximated system. These standardised conditions consist of a local in time estimate between the original and the…
Uncertainty propagation in non-linear dynamical systems has become a key problem in various fields including control theory and machine learning. In this work we focus on discrete-time non-linear stochastic dynamical systems. We present a…
The sample-based Gibbs sampler has been the dominant method for approximating joint distribution from a collection of compatible full-conditional distributions. However for conditionally specified model, mixtures of incompatible full and…
For rare events described in terms of Markov processes, truly unbiased estimation of the rare event probability generally requires the avoidance of numerical approximations of the Markov process. Recent work in the exact and…
This paper introduces a new algorithm for numerically computing equilibrium (i.e. stationary) distributions for Markov chains and Markov jump processes with either a very large finite state space or a countably infinite state space. The…
A novel approach to the problem of partial state estimation of nonlinear systems is proposed. The main idea is to translate the state estimation problem into one of estimation of constant, unknown parameters related to the systems initial…
We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method…