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Many causal estimands, such as average treatment effects under unconfoundedness, can be written as continuous linear functionals of an unknown regression function. We study a weighting estimator that sets weights by a minimax procedure:…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

It is well known that Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) may attain minimax suboptimal rates in terms of the mean squared error (Birg\'e and Massart, 1993). In this paper, we prove that, under relatively mild assumptions, the suboptimality…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Gil Kur , Eli Putterman , Alexander Rakhlin

This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Lars van der Laan

We study the minimal error of the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) procedure in the task of regression, both in the random and the fixed design settings. Our sharp lower bounds shed light on the possibility (or impossibility) of adapting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-25 Gil Kur , Alexander Rakhlin

In this paper, we improve the PAC-Bayesian error bound for linear regression derived in Germain et al. [10]. The improvements are twofold. First, the proposed error bound is tighter, and converges to the generalization loss with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-09 Vera Shalaeva , Alireza Fakhrizadeh Esfahani , Pascal Germain , Mihaly Petreczky

Statistical performance bounds for reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can be critical for high-stakes applications like healthcare. This paper introduces a new framework for theoretically measuring the performance of such algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-03 Christoph Dann , Tor Lattimore , Emma Brunskill

We present a new PAC-Bayesian generalization bound. Standard bounds contain a $\sqrt{L_n \cdot \KL/n}$ complexity term which dominates unless $L_n$, the empirical error of the learning algorithm's randomized predictions, vanishes. We manage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-16 Zakaria Mhammedi , Peter D. Grunwald , Benjamin Guedj

The paper focuses on general properties of parametric minimum contrast estimators. The quality of estimation is measured in terms of the rate function related to the contrast, thus allowing to derive exponential risk bounds invariant with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-07 Yuri Golubev , Vladimir Spokoiny

The paper offers a novel unified approach to studying the accuracy of parameter estimation by the quasi likelihood method. Important features of the approach are: (1) The underlying model {is not assumed to be parametric}. (2) No conditions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-03-11 V. Spokoiny

Variational approximation techniques and inference for stochastic models in machine learning has gained much attention the last years. Especially in the case of Gaussian Processes (GP) and their deep versions, Deep Gaussian Processes…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Roman Föll , Ingo Steinwart

Precision and Recall are fundamental metrics in machine learning tasks where both accurate predictions and comprehensive coverage are essential, such as in multi-label learning, language generation, medical studies, and recommender systems.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Lee Cohen , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao

This article studies the achievable guarantees on the error rates of certain learning algorithms, with particular focus on refining logarithmic factors. Many of the results are based on a general technique for obtaining bounds on the error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Steve Hanneke

A supervised learning framework is proposed to approximate a model predictive controller (MPC) with reduced computational complexity and guarantees on stability and constraint satisfaction. The framework can be used for a wide class of…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-06-13 Michael Hertneck , Johannes Köhler , Sebastian Trimpe , Frank Allgöwer

In 1984, Valiant [ 7 ] introduced the Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning framework for boolean function classes. Blumer et al. [ 2] extended this model in 1989 by introducing the VC dimension as a tool to characterize the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Mohammed Nechba , Mouhajir Mohamed , Sedjari Yassine

We analyze the practices of reservoir computing in the framework of statistical learning theory. In particular, we derive finite sample upper bounds for the generalization error committed by specific families of reservoir computing systems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Lukas Gonon , Lyudmila Grigoryeva , Juan-Pablo Ortega

Minimax problems have achieved success in machine learning such as adversarial training, robust optimization, reinforcement learning. For theoretical analysis, current optimal excess risk bounds, which are composed by generalization error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Bowei Zhu , Shaojie Li , Yong Liu

In this paper, we propose new problem-independent lower bounds on the sample complexity and regret in episodic MDPs, with a particular focus on the non-stationary case in which the transition kernel is allowed to change in each stage of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-09 Omar Darwiche Domingues , Pierre Ménard , Emilie Kaufmann , Michal Valko

Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) algorithms are widely used in a variety of estimation and prediction tasks in signal-processing and machine learning applications. Despite their popularity, a theory that explains their statistical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-07 Hossein Taheri , Ramtin Pedarsani , Christos Thrampoulidis

We extend the theory of PAC learning in a way which allows to model a rich variety of learning tasks where the data satisfy special properties that ease the learning process. For example, tasks where the distance of the data from the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-22 Noga Alon , Steve Hanneke , Ron Holzman , Shay Moran

In real-world applications, the distribution of the data, and our goals, evolve over time. The prevailing theoretical framework for studying machine learning, namely probably approximately correct (PAC) learning, largely ignores time. As a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-31 Ashwin De Silva , Rahul Ramesh , Rubing Yang , Siyu Yu , Joshua T Vogelstein , Pratik Chaudhari
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