Related papers: Bayesian forecasting and scalable multivariate vol…

A Bayesian lattice filtering and smoothing approach is proposed for fast and accurate modeling and inference in multivariate non-stationary time series. This approach offers computational feasibility and interpretable time-frequency…

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

A new approach in stochastic optimization via the use of stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) algorithms, which is a variant of stochastic gradient decent (SGD) methods, allows us to efficiently approximate global minimizers of…

Latent space models (LSMs) are often used to analyze dynamic (time-varying) networks that evolve in continuous time. Existing approaches to Bayesian inference for these models rely on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, which cannot handle…

Fitting statistical models to spatiotemporal data requires finding the right balance between imposing smoothness and following the data. In the context of p-splines, we propose a Bayesian framework for choosing the smoothing parameter which…

The computation required for a switching Kalman Filter (SKF) increases exponentially with the number of system operation modes. In this paper, a computationally tractable graph representation is proposed for a switching linear dynamic…

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) and stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) are two popular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for Bayesian inference that can scale to large datasets, allowing to sample from…

Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics…

Many signal processing applications require estimation of time-varying sparse signals, potentially with the knowledge of an imperfect dynamics model. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for dynamic filtering of time-varying sparse…

We propose a Bayesian non-parametric approach for modeling the distribution of multiple returns. In particular, we use an asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to estimate the time-varying correlations of financial returns…

Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) ensures strong guarantees with regards to convergence in measure for sampling log-concave posterior distributions by adding noise to stochastic gradient iterates. Given the size of many practical…

We developed a parallel Bayesian optimization algorithm for large eddy simulations. These simulations challenge optimization methods because they take hours or days to compute, and their objective function contains noise as turbulent…

We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that accommodates time-varying volatility, outliers, and cross-sectional correlation in the idiosyncratic components. For model comparison, we employ an importance-sampling…

Motivated by a real-world application in cardiology, we develop an algorithm to perform Bayesian bi-level variable selection in a generalized linear model, for datasets that may be large both in terms of the number of individuals and the…

Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…

Neural forecasting of spatiotemporal time series drives both research and industrial innovation in several relevant application domains. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are often the core component of the forecasting architecture. However, in…

We propose two new Bayesian smoothing methods for general state-space models with unknown parameters. The first approach is based on the particle learning and smoothing algorithm, but with an adjustment in the backward resampling weights.…

A broad class of stochastic volatility models are defined by systems of stochastic differential equations. While these models have seen widespread success in domains such as finance and statistical climatology, they typically lack an…

The recently developed semi-parametric generalized linear model (SPGLM) offers more flexibility as compared to the classical GLM by including the baseline or reference distribution of the response as an additional parameter in the model.…

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…