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To make informed decisions in natural environments that change over time, humans must update their beliefs as new observations are gathered. Studies exploring human inference as a dynamical process that unfolds in time have focused on…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-03-03 Arthur Prat-Carrabin , Robert C. Wilson , Jonathan D. Cohen , Rava Azeredo da Silveira

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

It is increasingly evident that there is more to biological evolution than natural selection; moreover, the concept of evolution is not limited to biology. We propose an integrative framework for characterizing how entities evolve, in which…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Liane Gabora , Diederik Aerts

This chapter introduces the Bayesian reflex -- an analogy with the autonomic nervous system -- as a unifying framework for online learning in AI. Bayesian online algorithms automatically maintain equilibrium in dynamic environments via…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Durba Bhattacharya , Sucharita Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

The theory of evolution by natural selection cannot be used to evaluate the truth value of the following proposition: Through evolution, there exists at least one species that can adapt to any one given environment. To address this issue,…

Biological Physics · Physics 2022-08-17 Kai Xu

What is information? Is it physical? We argue that in a Bayesian theory the notion of information must be defined in terms of its effects on the beliefs of rational agents. Information is whatever constrains rational beliefs and therefore…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-09-08 Ariel Caticha

Collective motion is ubiquitous in nature; groups of animals, such as fish, birds, and ungulates appear to move as a whole, exhibiting a rich behavioral repertoire that ranges from directed movement to milling to disordered swarming.…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2024-05-15 Conor Heins , Beren Millidge , Lancelot da Costa , Richard Mann , Karl Friston , Iain Couzin

Although Darwinian models are rampant in the social sciences, social scientists do not face the problem that motivated Darwin's theory of natural selection: the problem of explaining how lineages evolve despite that any traits they acquire…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-09 Liane Gabora

The design of an experiment can be always be considered at least implicitly Bayesian, with prior knowledge used informally to aid decisions such as the variables to be studied and the choice of a plausible relationship between the…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-03 David C. Woods , Antony M. Overstall , Maria Adamou , Timothy W. Waite

Darwin's theory of evolution emphasized that positive selection of functional proficiency provides the fitness that ultimately determines the structure of life, a view that has dominated biochemical thinking of enzymes as perfectly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-04 Kasper P. Kepp

Simonton (2006) makes the unwarranted assumption that nonmonotonicity supports a Darwinian view of creativity. Darwin's theory of natural selection was motivated by a paradox that has no equivalent in creative thought: the paradox of how…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-09 Liane Gabora

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-31 Andrew Gordon Wilson , Pavel Izmailov

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Eugene Santos , Solomon Eyal Shimony , Edward Williams

Here we introduce a new design framework for synthetic biology that exploits the advantages of Bayesian model selection. We will argue that the difference between inference and design is that in the former we try to reconstruct the system…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Chris Barnes , Daniel Silk , Xia Sheng , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Competition between a complex system's constituents and a corresponding reward mechanism based on it have profound influence on the functioning, stability, and evolution of the system. But determining the dominance hierarchy or ranking…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-03-25 Juyong Park , Soon-Hyung Yook

At the fundamental conceptual level, two alternatives have traditionally been considered for how mutations arise and how evolution happens: 1) random mutation and natural selection, and 2) Lamarckism. Recently, the theory of…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Liudmyla Vasylenko , Adi Livnat

This paper examines whether unitary evolution alone is sufficient to explain emergence of the classical world from the perspective of computability theory. Specifically, it looks at the problem of how the choice related to the measurement…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-10-27 Subhash Kak

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Henry R. Scharf

Humans can learn languages from remarkably little experience. Developing computational models that explain this ability has been a major challenge in cognitive science. Bayesian models that build in strong inductive biases - factors that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-25 R. Thomas McCoy , Thomas L. Griffiths