Related papers: Asymptotically Minimax Prediction in Infinite Sequ…

A parameter estimation problem is considered, in which dispersed sensors transmit to the statistician partial information regarding their observations. The sensors observe the paths of continuous semimartingales, whose drifts are linear…

This paper establishes a formal connection between finite-sample and asymptotically minimax robust hypothesis testing under distributional uncertainty. It is shown that, whenever a finite-sample minimax robust test exists, it coincides with…

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Bayesian statistical inference for Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) with parameters lying on a constrained space is of general interest (e.g., in monotonic or convex regression), but often constructing valid prior distributions supported on…

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). Our results can be used…

We characterize conjugate nonparametric Bayesian models as projective limits of conjugate, finite-dimensional Bayesian models. In particular, we identify a large class of nonparametric models representable as infinite-dimensional analogues…

In this study, simultaneous predictive distributions for independent Poisson observables were considered and the performance of predictive distributions was evaluated using the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) loss. This study proposes a class of…

Our paper deals with inferring simulator-based statistical models given some observed data. A simulator-based model is a parametrized mechanism which specifies how data are generated. It is thus also referred to as generative model. We…

In this article, we derive the weak limiting distribution of the least squares estimator (LSE) of a convex probability mass function (pmf) with a finite support. We show that it can be defined via a certain convex projection of a Gaussian…

A nonparametric Bayes approach is proposed for the problem of estimating a sparse sequence based on Gaussian random variables. We adopt the popular two-group prior with one component being a point mass at zero, and the other component being…

A single joinpoint changepoint model partitions a time series into two segments, joined at the changepoint time by constraining the estimated piecewise linear regression responses to be continuous. This manuscript derives the exact…

Approximate Bayesian computation methods are useful for generative models with intractable likelihoods. These methods are however sensitive to the dimension of the parameter space, requiring exponentially increasing resources as this…

Bayesian inference was once a gold standard for learning with neural networks, providing accurate full predictive distributions and well calibrated uncertainty. However, scaling Bayesian inference techniques to deep neural networks is…

A Bayesian inference method for problems with small samples and sparse data is presented in this paper. A general type of prior ($\propto 1/\sigma^{q}$) is proposed to formulate the Bayesian posterior for inference problems under small…

We analyze the (unconditional) distribution of a linear predictor that is constructed after a data-driven model selection step in a linear regression model. First, we derive the exact finite-sample cumulative distribution function (cdf) of…

Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in nature and engineering. A case in point is a class of neural networks in the infinite-width limit, whose priors correspond to Gaussian processes. Here we perturbatively extend this correspondence to…

Gaussian Process is a non-parametric prior which can be understood as a distribution on the function space intuitively. It is known that by introducing appropriate prior to the weights of the neural networks, Gaussian Process can be…

Gaussian process is a theoretically appealing model for nonparametric analysis, but its computational cumbersomeness hinders its use in large scale and the existing reduced-rank solutions are usually heuristic. In this work, we propose a…

This paper obtains asymptotic results for parametric inference using prediction-based estimating functions when the data are high frequency observations of a diffusion process with an infinite time horizon. Specifically, the data are…