Related papers: How to estimate epidemic risk from incomplete cont…
Contact tracing (CT) plays a pivotal role in controlling early epidemic spread, particularly when a novel infectious disease emerges. However, the quantitative impact of missing information -- such as untraced cases or unnotified contacts…
Global strategies to contain a pandemic, such as social distancing and protective measures, are designed to reduce the overall transmission rate between individuals. Despite such measures, essential institutions, including hospitals,…
Early detection and modeling of a contagious epidemic can provide important guidance about quelling the contagion, controlling its spread, or the effective design of countermeasures. A topic of recent interest has been to design social…
When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
Face-to-face contacts between individuals contribute to shape social networks and play an important role in determining how infectious diseases can spread within a population. It is thus important to obtain accurate and reliable…
We predict the future course of ongoing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemics on regular, Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi and Barab\'asi-Albert networks. It is known that the contact network influences the spread of an epidemic within a…
It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic; for example, social…
The analysis of social networks, in particular those describing face-to-face interactions between individuals, is complex due to the intertwining of the topological and temporal aspects. We revisit them both, using public data recorded by…
We consider an SEIR epidemic model on a network also allowing random contacts, where recovered individuals could either recover naturally or be diagnosed. Upon diagnosis, manual contact tracing is triggered such that each infected network…
By incorporating delayed epidemic information and self-restricted travel behavior into the SIS model, we have investigated the coupled effects of timely and accurate epidemic information and people's sensitivity to the epidemic information…
Like other social animals and biological systems, human groups constantly exchange information. Network models provide a way of quantifying this process by representing the pathways of information propagation between individuals. Existing…
Most infectious diseases spread on a dynamic network of human interactions. Recent studies of social dynamics have provided evidence that spreading patterns may depend strongly on detailed micro-dynamics of the social system. We have…
The spread of a contagious disease clearly depends on when infected individuals come into contact with susceptible ones. Such effects, however, have remained largely unexplored in the study of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, it remains…
Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on survey data. The characteristics of these distributions are of interest as components of mathematical…
The contact structure of the population shapes the progression of epidemics. Nonetheless, the joint evolution of individual behavioral adaptations and disease dynamics on networks remains poorly understood. We use a…
It is a fundamental question in epidemiology to estimate, model and predict the growth rate of a pandemic. Analogously, analysing the diffusion of innovation, (fake) news, memes, and rumours is of key importance in the social sciences. The…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…
Hand-hygiene compliance and contacts of health-care workers largely determine the potential paths of pathogen transmission in hospital wards. We explored how the combination of data collected by two automated infrastructures based on…
We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…