Related papers: Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long a…

We propose a statistical approach to tornadoes modeling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modeling the tornadoes intensity, measured with the…

Tornadoes have caused billions of dollars in damage and are one of the leading causes of weather-related deaths in the United States each year. Tornadoes are known to frequently form in the warm sector of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), yet…

Principled decision making in emergency response management necessitates the use of statistical models that predict the spatial-temporal likelihood of incident occurrence. These statistical models are then used for proactive stationing…

Developing methods to predict disastrous natural phenomena is more important than ever, and tornadoes are among the most dangerous ones in nature. Due to the unpredictability of the weather, counteracting them is not an easy task and today…

Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit…

We compare two methods for making predictions of the climatological distribution of the number of hurricanes making landfall along short sections of the North American coastline. The first method uses local data, and the second method uses…

Recognizing the challenges with current tornado warning systems, we investigate alternative approaches. In particular, we present a database engi-neered system that integrates information from heterogeneous rich data sources, including…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Climate models robustly imply that some significant change in precipitation patterns will occur. Models consistently project that the intensity of individual precipitation events increases by approximately 6-7%/K, following the increase in…

Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…

Tornado prediction methods and main mechanisms of tornado genesis were analyzed. A model, based on the superposition principle, has been built. For efficiency evaluation, the constructed model has been tested on real-life data obtained from…

In many coastal communities, the risks driven by storm surges are motivating substantial investments in flood risk management. The design of adaptive risk management strategies, however, hinges on the ability to detect future changes in…

A functional time series approach is proposed for investigating spatial correlation in daily maximum temperature forecast errors for 111 cities spread across the U.S. The modelling of spatial correlation is most fruitful for longer forecast…

This study develops a statistical conditional approach to evaluate climate model performance in wind speed and direction and to project their future changes under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario over inland and…

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions and historical measurements. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines…

There is significant interest in being able to predict where crimes will happen, for example to aid in the efficient tasking of police and other protective measures. We aim to model both the temporal and spatial dependencies often exhibited…

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…

Tornadoes are severe weather phenomena characterized by a violently rotating column of air connecting the ground to a parent storm. Within the United States, hundreds of tornadoes occur every year. Despite this, the dynamics of tornado…

Hail risk assessment is necessary to estimate and reduce damage to crops, orchards, and infrastructure. Also, it helps to estimate and reduce consequent losses for businesses and, particularly, insurance companies. But hail forecasting is…

Pattern discovery in geo-spatiotemporal data (such as traffic and weather data) is about finding patterns of collocation, co-occurrence, cascading, or cause and effect between geospatial entities. Using simplistic definitions of…