Related papers: Brexit or Bremain ? Evidence from bubble analysis
Financial markets are well known for their dramatic dynamics and consequences that affect much of the world's population. Consequently, much research has aimed at understanding, identifying and forecasting crashes and rebounds in financial…
The Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles with finite-time singular crash hazard rates has been developed to describe the dynamics of financial bubbles and crashes. It has been applied successfully to a large…
Identifying unambiguously the presence of a bubble in an asset price remains an unsolved problem in standard econometric and financial economic approaches. A large part of the problem is that the fundamental value of an asset is, in…
We introduce the concept of "negative bubbles" as the mirror image of standard financial bubbles, in which positive feedback mechanisms may lead to transient accelerating price falls. To model these negative bubbles, we adapt the…
There are two major streams of literature on the modeling of financial bubbles: the strict local martingale framework and the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) financial bubble model. Based on a class of models that embeds the JLS model and…
Leverage is strongly related to liquidity in a market and lack of liquidity is considered a cause and/or consequence of the recent financial crisis. A repurchase agreement is a financial instrument where a security is sold simultaneously…
Brexit and its implications are an ongoing topic of interest since the Brexit referendum in 2016. In 2019 the House of commons held a number of "indicative" and "meaningful" votes as part of the Brexit approval process. The voting behaviour…
Important game-changer economic events and transformations cause uncertainties that may affect investment decisions, capital flows, international trade, and macroeconomic variables. One such major transformation is Brexit, which refers to…
A desire to understand the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, Brexit, in the referendum of June 2016 has continued to occupy academics, the media and politicians. Using topological data analysis ball mapper we extract…
The purpose of this paper is to use the votes cast at the 2019 European elections held in United Kingdom to re-visit the analysis conducted subsequent to its 2016 European Union referendum vote. This exercise provides a staging post on…
We study the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of financial market crashes (Johansen, Ledoit, and Sornette [2000] "Crashes as Critical Points." Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finan. 3(2) 219-255). On our view, the JLS model is a curious case from…
The British party system is known for its discipline and cohesion, but it remains wedged on one issue: European integration. We offer a methodology using social network analysis that considers the individual interactions of MPs in the…
The Brexit referendum took place in the UK in June, 2016. The unweighted percentage of leavers over the whole population was 51.9%. In this paper, first, we demonstrate that a 52%-48% split represents only a difference that is not…
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure…
In 2016, United Kingdom (UK) citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU), which was officially implemented in 2020. During this period, UK residents experienced a great deal of uncertainty around the UK's continued relationship with the…
On 23rd June 2016, 51.9% of British voters voted to leave the European Union, triggering a process and events that have led to the United Kingdom leaving the EU, an event that has become known as 'Brexit'. In this piece of research, we…
Since the result of the 2016 referendum, Brexit has been an unpredictable democratic adventure, the finale of which remains unclear. This year, in the final days of March, parliamentarians seized control of the order paper from the…
Country instability is a global issue, with unpredictably high levels of instability thwarting socio-economic growth and possibly causing a slew of negative consequences. As a result, uncertainty prediction models for a country are becoming…
We propose a novel multi-layered nonlinear model that is able to capture and predict the housing-demographic dynamics of the real-state market by simulating the transitions of owners among price-based house layers. This model allows us to…
Data analysis with log-periodical parametrization of the Brent oil price dynamics has allowed to estimate (very approximately) the date when the dashing collapse of the Brent oil price will achieve the absolute minimum level (corresponding…