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Understanding the processes that influence groundwater levels is crucial for forecasting and responding to hazards such as groundwater droughts. Mixed models, which combine a fixed mean, expressed using independent predictors, with…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-25 Jakub J. Pypkowski , Adam M. Sykulski , James S. Martin , Ben P. Marchant

Modelling of precipitation and its extremes is important for urban and agriculture planning purposes. We present a method for producing spatial predictions and measures of uncertainty for spatio-temporal data that is heavy-tailed and…

Applications · Statistics 2014-11-19 Yang Liu , Philip Kokic

In the environmental modeling field, the exploratory analysis of responses often exhibits spatial correlation as well as some non-Gaussian attributes such as skewness and/or heavy-tailedness. Consequently, we propose a general spatial model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-25 Behzad Mahmoudian

This paper develops the theory and methods for modeling a stationary count time series via Gaussian transformations. The techniques use a latent Gaussian process and a distributional transformation to construct stationary series with very…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Yisu Jia , Stefanos Kechagias , James Livsey , Robert Lund , Vladas Pipiras

In this paper, we introduce a new and efficient data augmentation approach to the posterior inference of the models with shape parameters when the reciprocal gamma function appears in full conditional densities. Our approach is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-08 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

In many statistical problems, the data distribution is specified through a generative process for which the likelihood function is analytically intractable, yet inference on the associated model parameters remains of primary interest. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-01 Haoyu Jiang , Yuexi Wang , Yun Yang

Rue and Held (2005) proposed a method for efficiently computing the Gaussian likelihood for stationary Markov random field models, when the data locations fall on a complete regular grid, and the model has no additive error term. The…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-16 Joseph Guinness , Ilse C. F. Ipsen

The grade of membership model is a flexible latent variable model for analyzing multivariate categorical data through individual-level mixed membership scores. In many modern applications, auxiliary covariates are collected alongside…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Zhiyu Xu , Yuqi Gu

The best known methods for estimating hazard rate functions in survival analysis models are either purely parametric or purely nonparametric. The parametric ones are sometimes too biased while the nonparametric ones are sometimes too…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-20 Nils Lid Hjort

Nonparametric regression for massive numbers of samples (n) and features (p) is an increasingly important problem. In big n settings, a common strategy is to partition the feature space, and then separately apply simple models to each…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-06-10 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

The additive hazards model specifies the effect of covariates on the hazard in an additive way, in contrast to the popular Cox model, in which it is multiplicative. As non-parametric model, it offers a very flexible way of modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Chengyuan Lu , Jelle Goeman , Hein Putter

Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-31 Jay M. Ver Hoef , Eryn Blagg , Michael Dumelle , Philip M. Dixon , Dale L. Zimmerman , Paul Conn

Prevalence mapping in low resource settings is an increasingly important endeavor to guide policy making and to spatially and temporally characterize the burden of disease. We will focus our discussion on consideration of the complex design…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-15 Jon Wakefield , Daniel Simpson , Jessica Godwin

This article describes posterior maximization for topic models, identifying computational and conceptual gains from inference under a non-standard parametrization. We then show that fitted parameters can be used as the basis for a novel…

Applications · Statistics 2011-12-30 Matthew A. Taddy

We consider the problem of learning a conditional Gaussian graphical model in the presence of latent variables. Building on recent advances in this field, we suggest a method that decomposes the parameters of a conditional Markov random…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-07 Benjamin Frot , Luke Jostins , Gil McVean

Compositional data, such as regional shares of economic sectors or property transactions, are central to understanding structural change in economic systems across space and time. This paper introduces a spatiotemporal multivariate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-03-16 Matthias Eckardt , Philipp Otto

We consider approximate maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models. We discuss both direct optimization of the likelihood and expectation--maximization (EM). For EM, we also give closed-form expressions for the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-11-03 Juho Kokkala , Arno Solin , Simo Särkkä

We develop a computational procedure to estimate the covariance hyperparameters for semiparametric Gaussian process regression models with additive noise. Namely, the presented method can be used to efficiently estimate the variance of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Siavash Ameli , Shawn C. Shadden

Iterative geostatistical history matching uses stochastic sequential simulation to generate and perturb subsurface Earth models to match historical production data. The areas of influence around each well are one of the key factors in…

Geophysics · Physics 2018-10-17 Eduardo Barrela , Vasily Demyanov , Leonardo Azevedo

Using former maps, geographers intend to study the evolution of the land cover in order to have a prospective approach on the future landscape; predictions of the future land cover, by the use of older maps and environmental variables, are…