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A series of novel filters for probabilistic inference that propose an alternative way of performing Bayesian updates, called particle flow filters, have been attracting recent interest. These filters provide approximate solutions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-24 Flávio Eler De Melo , Simon Maskell , Matteo Fasiolo , Fred Daum

Many science and engineering applications feature non-convex optimization problems where the objective function can not be handled analytically, i.e. it is a black box. Examples include design optimization via experiments, or via costly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-02-18 Lorenzo Sabug , Fredy Ruiz , Lorenzo Fagiano

This paper introduces a Fault Diagnosis (Detection, Isolation, and Estimation) method using Set-Membership Estimation (SME) designed for a class of nonlinear systems that are linear to the fault parameters. The methodology advances fault…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-11-06 A. Tsolakis , L. Ferranti , V. Reppa

Robust inference for stochastic dynamical systems is often hampered by sparse sampling and the absence of closed-form likelihoods. We introduce a Monte Carlo path-inference framework that leverages full-path statistics and bridge processes…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-10-07 Javier Aguilar , Miguel A. Muñoz , Sandro Azaele

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is widely used in nonlinear state-space systems, but its performance often suffers from poorly approximated proposal and state-transition distributions. This work introduces a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Wessel L. van Nierop , Nir Shlezinger , Ruud J. G. van Sloun

Tuning of measurement models is challenging in real-world applications of sequential Monte Carlo methods. Recent advances in differentiable particle filters have led to various efforts to learn measurement models through neural networks.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Xiongjie Chen , Yunpeng Li

We study an optimal control problem under uncertainty, where the target function is the solution of an elliptic partial differential equation with random coefficients, steered by a control function. The robust formulation of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-10-23 Philipp A. Guth , Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Claudia Schillings , Ian H. Sloan

We address the problem of approximating the posterior probability distribution of the fixed parameters of a state-space dynamical system using a sequential Monte Carlo method. The proposed approach relies on a nested structure that employs…

Computation · Statistics 2017-05-12 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

Optimal decision-making under partial observability requires agents to balance reducing uncertainty (exploration) against pursuing immediate objectives (exploitation). In this paper, we introduce a novel policy optimization framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-05 Hany Abdulsamad , Sahel Iqbal , Simo Särkkä

Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-07 Jeremie Houssineau , Branko Ristic

We consider a class of high-dimensional spatial filtering problems, where the spatial locations of observations are unknown and driven by the partially observed hidden signal. This problem is exceptionally challenging as not only is…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-07 Hamza Ruzayqat , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Despite the numerous applications that may be expeditiously modelled by counting processes, stochastic filtering strategies involving Poisson-type observations still remain somewhat poorly developed. In this work, we propose a Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-09 Mamatha Venugopal , Ram Mohan Vasu , Debasish Roy

We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is degenerate or low. More precisely, one is given access to a discrete time observation sequence which at any time $k$ depends only on the state of an…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-17 Abylay Zhumekenov , Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas

Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-06 Yuan Zhao , Josue Nassar , Ian Jordan , Mónica Bugallo , Il Memming Park

Proximal Markov Chain Monte Carlo is a novel construct that lies at the intersection of Bayesian computation and convex optimization, which helped popularize the use of nondifferentiable priors in Bayesian statistics. Existing formulations…

Computation · Statistics 2023-01-24 Qiang Heng , Hua Zhou , Eric C. Chi

We study the fundamental problem of learning a marginally stable unknown nonlinear dynamical system. We describe an algorithm for this problem, based on the technique of spectral filtering, which learns a mapping from past observations to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Evan Dogariu , Anand Brahmbhatt , Elad Hazan

Sequential Monte Carlo methods are typically not straightforward to implement on parallel architectures. This is because standard resampling schemes involve communication between all particles. The $\alpha$-sequential Monte Carlo method was…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-21 Deborshee Sen

A major challenge facing existing sequential Monte-Carlo methods for parameter estimation in physics stems from the inability of existing approaches to robustly deal with experiments that have different mechanisms that yield the results…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-09-13 Christopher Granade , Nathan Wiebe

In this article, an overview of Bayesian methods for sequential simulation from posterior distributions of nonlinear and non-Gaussian dynamic systems is presented. The focus is mainly laid on sequential Monte Carlo methods, which are based…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-28 Konstantinos E. Tatsis , Vasilis K. Dertimanis , Eleni N. Chatzi

Dynamic Programming (DP) suffers from the well-known ``curse of dimensionality'', further exacerbated by the need to compute expectations over process noise in stochastic models. This paper presents a Monte Carlo-based sampling approach for…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-10 Mohammad S. Ramadan , Ahmad Al-Tawaha , Mohamed Shouman , Ahmed Atallah , Ming Jin