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Related papers: Delayed Gambler's Ruin

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Delayed rewards problem in contextual bandits has been of interest in various practical settings. We study randomized allocation strategies and provide an understanding on how the exploration-exploitation tradeoff is affected by delays in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-28 Sakshi Arya , Yuhong Yang

Define a certain gambler's ruin process $\mathbf{X}_{j}, \mbox{ \ }j\ge 0,$ such that the increments $\varepsilon_{j}:=\mathbf{X}_{j}-\mathbf{X}_{j-1}$ take values $\pm1$ and satisfy $P(\varepsilon_{j+1}=1|\varepsilon_{j}=1,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-22 Gregory J. Morrow

Chances of a gambler are always lower than chances of a casino in the case of an ideal, mathematically perfect roulette, if the capital of the gambler is limited and the minimum and maximum allowed bets are limited by the casino. However, a…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-02-23 A. V. Kavokin , A. S. Sheremet , M. Yu. Petrov

This work explains how to utilize earlier results by P. Diaconis, K. Houston-Edwards and the second author to estimate probabilities related to the 4-player gambler ruin problem. For instance, we show that the probability that a very…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-13 Kathryn O'Connor , Laurent Saloff-Coste

Real-world processes often exhibit temporal separation between actions and reactions - a characteristic frequently ignored in many modelling frameworks. Adding temporal aspects, like time delays, introduces a higher complexity of problems…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-02-04 Małgorzata Fic , Frank Bastian , Jacek Miękisz , Chaitanya S. Gokhale

We compare games under delayed control and delay games, two types of infinite games modelling asynchronicity in reactive synthesis. Our main result, the interreducibility of the existence of sure winning strategies for the protagonist,…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-10-03 Martin Fränzle , Sarah Winter , Martin Zimmermann

We consider a generalization of the classical risk model when the premium intensity depends on the current surplus of an insurance company. All surplus is invested in the risky asset, the price of which follows a geometric Brownian motion.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-03-28 Yuliya Mishura , Mykola Perestyuk , Olena Ragulina

We study a multi-armed bandit problem with covariates in a setting where there is a possible delay in observing the rewards. Under some mild assumptions on the probability distributions for the delays and using an appropriate randomization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-06 Sakshi Arya , Yuhong Yang

This paper considers a variant of the classical Cram\'er-Lundberg model that is particularly appropriate in the credit context, with the distinguishing feature that it corresponds to a finite number of obligors. The focus is on computing…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Guusje Delsing , Michel Mandjes

We study a dynamic model of a non-life insurance portfolio. The foundation of the model is a compound Poisson process that represents the claims side of the insurer. To introduce clusters of claims appearing, e.g. with catastrophic events,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-03 Jonathan Klinge , Maren Diane Schmeck

In this paper we study the joint ruin problem for two insurance companies that divide between them both claims and premia in some specified proportions (modeling two branches of the same insurance company or an insurance and re-insurance…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-11-16 Florin Avram , Zbigniew Palmowski , Martijn Pistorius

We consider the dividend maximization problem including a ruin penalty in a diffusion environment. The additional penalty term is motivated by a constraint on dividend strategies. Intentionally, we use different discount rates for the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-04-20 Josef Anton Strini , Stefan Thonhauser

In this paper, we adapt the classic Cram\'er-Lundberg collective risk theory model to a perturbed model by adding a Wiener process to the compound Poisson process, which can be used to incorporate premium income uncertainty, interest rate…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-07 Yacine Koucha , Alfredo D. Egidio dos Reis

In this paper we evaluate the probability of the discrete time Parisian ruin that occurs when surplus process stays below or at zero at least for some fixed duration of time $d>0$. We identify expressions for the ruin probabilities within…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-16 Irmina Czarna , Zbigniew Palmowski , Przemysław Światek

Based on a discrete version of the Pollaczeck-Khinchine formula, a general method to calculate the ultimate ruin probability in the Gerber-Dickson risk model is provided when claims follow a negative binomial mixture distribution. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 David J. Santana , Luis Rincon

In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem a gambler needs to choose at each round of play one of K arms, each characterized by an unknown reward distribution. Reward realizations are only observed when an arm is selected, and the gambler's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Omar Besbes , Yonatan Gur , Assaf Zeevi

In this paper, we consider online learning in generalized linear contextual bandits where rewards are not immediately observed. Instead, rewards are available to the decision-maker only after some delay, which is unknown and stochastic. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-12 Jose Blanchet , Renyuan Xu , Zhengyuan Zhou

Due to its practical use, De Vylder's approximation of the ruin probability has been one of the most popular approximations in ruin theory and its application to insurance. Surprisingly, only heuristic and numerical evidence has supported…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-04 Azmi Makhlouf

We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-06-27 Matija Vidmar

This paper considers the ruin problem with random premiums, whose densities have rational Laplace transforms, and investments in a risky asset whose price follows a geometric Brownian motion. The asymptotic behavior of the ruin probability…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Viktor Antipov