Related papers: Bayesian estimation of incompletely observed diffu…
In this article we consider a Monte Carlo-based method to filter partially observed diffusions observed at regular and discrete times. Given access only to Euler discretizations of the diffusion process, we present a new procedure which can…
Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…
We introduce the concept of Randomly Modulated Gaussian Processes as a unifying framework for modeling, analyzing and classifying anomalous diffusion models in heterogeneous media. This formulation incorporates correlations in the…
We propose the Bayesian bridge estimator for regularized regression and classification. Two key mixture representations for the Bayesian bridge model are developed: (1) a scale mixture of normals with respect to an alpha-stable random…
For recursive circular filtering based on circular statistics, we introduce a general framework for estimation of a circular state based on different circular distributions, specifically the wrapped normal distribution and the von Mises…
We introduce a methodology for performing parameter inference in high-dimensional, non-linear diffusion processes. We illustrate its applicability for obtaining insights into the evolution of and relationships between species, including…
We study nonparametric estimation of the diffusion coefficient from discrete data, when the observations are blurred by additional noise. Such issues have been developed over the last 10 years in several application fields and in particular…
The crossover among two or more types of diffusive processes represents a vibrant theme in nonequilibrium statistical physics. In this work we propose two models to generate crossovers among different L\'evy processes: in the first model we…
An important task in the statistical analysis of inhomogeneous point processes is to investigate the influence of a set of covariates on the point-generating mechanism. In this article, we consider the nonparametric Bayesian approach to…
Complex systems are characterized by a huge number of degrees of freedom often interacting in a non-linear manner. In many cases macroscopic states, however, can be characterized by a small number of order parameters that obey stochastic…
Diffusion models have impressive image generation capability, but low-quality generations still exist, and their identification remains challenging due to the lack of a proper sample-wise metric. To address this, we propose BayesDiff, a…
Many real-world systems modeled using partial differential equations (PDEs) involve unknown parameters that must be estimated from limited, noisy system observations. While typically assumed to be constants, some of these unobserved…
We propose a new semiparametric approach for modelling nonlinear univariate diffusions, where the observed process is a nonparametric transformation of an underlying parametric diffusion (UPD). This modelling strategy yields a general class…
A generic algorithm for the extraction of probabilistic (Bayesian) information about model parameters from data is presented. The algorithm propagates an ensemble of particles in the product space of model parameters and outputs. Each…
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion process $(X_t)$ which is observed at $n+1$ discrete times with regular sampling interval $\Delta$. Assuming that $(X_t)$ is strictly stationary, we propose nonparametric estimators of the drift and…
The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…
Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop…
Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension…
This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…
The adaptive quasi-likelihood analysis is developed for a degenerate diffusion process. Asymptotic normality and moment convergence are proved for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators and quasi-Bayesian estimators, in the adaptive…