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Our approach to Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis is designed to increase reproducibility of causal effect "discoveries" by: (i) using a Bayesian approach to inference; (ii) replacing the point null hypothesis with a region of practical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-11 Linyi Zou , Teresa Fazia , Hui Guo , Carlo Berzuini

Despite increasing popularity in empirical studies, the integration of machine learning generated variables into regression models for statistical inference suffers from the measurement error problem, which can bias estimation and threaten…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-23 Gordon Burtch , Edward McFowland , Mochen Yang , Gediminas Adomavicius

Instrument variable (IV) methods are widely used in empirical research to identify causal effects of a policy. In the local average treatment effect (LATE) framework, the IV estimand identifies the LATE under three main assumptions: random…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-03-21 Désiré Kédagni , Huan Wu , Yi Cui

Can instrumental variables be found from data? While instrumental variable (IV) methods are widely used to identify causal effect, testing their validity from observed data remains a challenge. This is because validity of an IV depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-05 Amit Sharma

Information from various data sources is increasingly available nowadays. However, some of the data sources may produce biased estimation due to commonly encountered biased sampling, population heterogeneity, or model misspecification. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-07 Ruoyu Wang , Qihua Wang , Wang Miao

In this paper, we introduce a new framework for robust multiple signal classification (MUSIC). The proposed framework, called robust measure-transformed (MT) MUSIC, is based on applying a transform to the probability distribution of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-19 Koby Todros , Alfred O. Hero

Instrumental variables are a popular tool to infer causal effects under unobserved confounding, but choosing suitable instruments is challenging in practice. We propose gIVBMA, a Bayesian model averaging procedure that addresses this…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Gregor Steiner , Mark Steel

Non-probability samples become increasingly popular in survey statistics but may suffer from selection biases that limit the generalizability of results to the target population. We consider integrating a non-probability sample with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-26 Shu Yang , Jae Kwang Kim , Rui Song

Obtaining valid treatment effect inference remains a challenging problem when dealing with numerous instruments and non-sparse control variables. In this paper, we propose a novel ridge regularization-based instrumental variables method for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-17 Xiduo Chen , Xingdong Feng , Antonio F. Galvao , Yeheng Ge

Variational inference is a powerful tool for approximate inference. However, it mainly focuses on the evidence lower bound as variational objective and the development of other measures for variational inference is a promising area of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-06 Michael Figurnov , Kirill Struminsky , Dmitry Vetrov

In causal inference confounding may be controlled either through regression adjustment in an outcome model, or through propensity score adjustment or inverse probability of treatment weighting, or both. The latter approaches, which are…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-17 Olli Saarela , Léo R. Belzile , David A. Stephens

The method of instrumental variables (IV) provides a framework to study causal effects in both randomized experiments with noncompliance and in observational studies where natural circumstances produce as-if random nudges to accept…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-07 Hyunseung Kang , Laura Peck , Luke Keele

In this paper, we discuss causal inference on the efficacy of a treatment or medication on a time-to-event outcome with competing risks. Although the treatment group can be randomized, there can be confoundings between the compliance and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-06 Cheng Zheng , Ran Dai , Parameswaran Hari , Mei-Jie Zhang

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Instrumental variable methods are widely used in medical and social science research to draw causal conclusions when the treatment and outcome are confounded by unmeasured confounding variables. One important feature of such studies is that…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Bo Zhang , Siyu Heng , Emily J. MacKay , Ting Ye

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of genetic variants associated with complex traits, and some variants are shown to be associated with multiple complex traits. Genetic covariance between two traits is defined…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-06 Jianqiao Wang , Sai Li , Hongzhe Li

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Jianqiao Mao , Max A. Little

Causal inference requires evaluating models on balanced distributions between treatment and control groups, while training data often exhibits imbalance due to historical decision-making policies. Most conventional statistical methods…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-21 Akira Tanimoto

There is growing interest in developing causal inference methods for multi-valued treatments with a focus on pairwise average treatment effects. Here we focus on a clinically important, yet less-studied estimand: causal drug-drug…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-20 Di Shu , Peisong Han , Sean Hennessy , Todd A Miano

Instrumental variable (IV) methods are used to estimate causal effects in settings with unobserved confounding, where we cannot directly experiment on the treatment variable. Instruments are variables which only affect the outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Elisabeth Ailer , Jason Hartford , Niki Kilbertus
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