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There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
The univariate generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is the most commonly used tool for analyzing the properties of rare events. The ever greater utilization of Bayesian methods for extreme value analysis warrants detailed…
Extreme events occur across the natural, engineering, and socioeconomic sciences, where rare but high-impact episodes can lead to disproportionate consequences that pose major challenges for prediction and risk management. Existing studies…
The masses of data now available have opened up the prospect of discovering weak signals using machine-learning algorithms, with a view to predictive or interpretation tasks. As this survey of recent results attempts to show, bringing…
Risk measures such as Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) focus on extreme losses, where scarce tail data makes model error unavoidable. To hedge misspecification, one evaluates worst-case tail risk over an ambiguity set. Using Extreme Value…
Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…
In the classical theorems of extreme value theory the limits of suitably rescaled maxima of sequences of independent, identically distributed random variables are studied. So far, only affine rescalings have been considered. We show,…
We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…
We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…
The max-stable process is an asymptotically justified model for spatial extremes. In particular, we focus on the hierarchical extreme-value process (HEVP), which is a particular max-stable process that is conducive to Bayesian computing.…
Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a…
The $k$-means clustering algorithm and its variant, the spherical $k$-means clustering, are among the most important and popular methods in unsupervised learning and pattern detection. In this paper, we explore how the spherical $k$-means…
We consider multivariate stationary processes $(\boldsymbol{X}_t)$ satisfying a stochastic recurrence equation of the form $$ \boldsymbol{X}_t= \mathbb{ M}_t \boldsymbol{X}_{t-1} + \boldsymbol{Q}_t,$$ where $(\boldsymbol{Q}_t)$ are iid…
We consider stationary sequences whose marginal tail is subexponential and lies in the Gumbel Maximum domain of attraction. Due to the extremely strong dependence, their extreme values are caused by multiple big values and are clustered in…
The task of analyzing extreme events with censoring effects is considered under a framework allowing for random covariate information. A wide class of estimators that can be cast as product-limit integrals is considered, for when the…
We discuss the use of likelihood asymptotics for inference on risk measures in univariate extreme value problems, focusing on estimation of high quantiles and similar summaries of risk for uncertainty quantification. We study whether…
Understanding multivariate extreme events play a crucial role in managing the risks of complex systems since extremes are governed by their own mechanisms. Conditional on a given variable exceeding a high threshold (e.g.\ traffic…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
This book provides a comprehensive introduction for the study of extreme events in the context of dynamical systems. The introduction provides a broad overview of the interdisciplinary research area of extreme events, underlining its…
The behavior of extreme observations is well-understood for time series or spatial data, but little is known if the data generating process is a structural causal model (SCM). We study the behavior of extremes in this model class, both for…