Related papers: A Formal Calculus for International Relations Comp…
We present a Bayesian tensor factorization model for inferring latent group structures from dynamic pairwise interaction patterns. For decades, political scientists have collected and analyzed records of the form "country $i$ took action…
Incidence Calculus and Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence are both theories to describe agents' degrees of belief in propositions, thus being appropriate to represent uncertainty in reasoning systems. This paper presents a straightforward…
We present a computational method to quantify the geopolitical impact of a space mission, based on the national budget and data logs of previous missions, and evidencing how even if some missions succeed, they can bring negative effects to…
This paper presents a three-component work. The first component sets the overall theoretical context which lies in the argument that the increasing complexity of the world has made it more difficult for International Relations (IR) to…
A generalized model of games is proposed, in which cooperative games and non-cooperative games are special cases. Some games that are neither cooperative nor non-cooperative can be expressed and analyzed. The model is based on relationships…
We explore the idea of using a "possibilistic graphical model" as the basis for a world model that drives a dialog system. As a first step we have developed a system that uses text-based dialog to derive a model of the user's family…
Coping with ambiguity has recently received a lot of attention in natural language processing. Most work focuses on the semantic representation of ambiguous expressions. In this paper we complement this work in two ways. First, we provide…
Deception is virtually ubiquitous in warfare, and should be a central consideration for military operations research. However, studies of agent behaviour in simulated operations have typically neglected to include explicit models of…
Combining evidence from different sources can be achieved with Bayesian or Dempster-Shafer methods. The first requires an estimate of the priors and likelihoods while the second only needs an estimate of the posterior probabilities and…
The unification of logic and probability is a long-standing concern in AI, and more generally, in the philosophy of science. In essence, logic provides an easy way to specify properties that must hold in every possible world, and…
The relational calculus (RC) is a concise, declarative query language. However, existing RC query evaluation approaches are inefficient and often deviate from established algorithms based on finite tables used in database management…
The relational data model requires a theory of relations in which tuples are not only many-sorted, but can also have indexes that are not necessarily numerical. In this paper we develop such a theory and define operations on relations that…
Type theory plays an important role in foundations of mathematics as a framework for formalizing mathematics and a base for proof assistants providing semi-automatic proof checking and construction. Derivation of each theorem in type theory…
Faceted arrangement of entities and typed relations for representing different associations between the entities are established tools in knowledge representation. In this paper, a proposal is being discussed combining both tools to draw…
Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that…
There are at least two ways to interpret numerical degrees of belief in terms of betting: (1) you can offer to bet at the odds defined by the degrees of belief, or (2) you can judge that a strategy for taking advantage of such betting…
We present a prototype tool for automated reasoning for Coalition Logic, a non-normal modal logic that can be used for reasoning about cooperative agency. The theorem prover CLProver is based on recent work on a resolution-based calculus…
This paper suggests a new interpretation of the Dempster-Shafer theory in terms of probabilistic interpretation of plausibility. A new rule of combination of independent evidence is shown and its preservation of interpretation is…
Definitions and notations with historical references are given for some numerical coefficients commonly used to quantify relations among collections of objects for the purpose of expressing approximate knowledge and probabilistic reasoning.
Computational Social Science emerged as a highly technical and popular discipline in the last few years, owing to the substantial advances in communication technology and daily production of vast quantities of personal data. As per capita…