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A location- and scale-invariant predictor is constructed which exhibits good probability matching for extreme predictions outside the span of data drawn from a variety of (stationary) general distributions. It is constructed via the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-07-30 Allan McRobie

We suggest approximating the distribution of the sum of independent and identically distributed random variables with a Pareto-like tail by combining extreme value approximations for the largest summands with a normal approximation for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-05 Ulrich K. Mueller

In risk analysis, a global fit that appropriately captures the body and the tail of the distribution of losses is essential. Modelling the whole range of the losses using a standard distribution is usually very hard and often impossible due…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-19 Tom Reynkens , Roel Verbelen , Jan Beirlant , Katrien Antonio

Statistical modeling of high dimensional extremes remains challenging and has generally been limited to moderate dimensions. Understanding structural relationships among variables at their extreme levels is crucial both for constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-01 Mihyun Kim , Jeongjin Lee

Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Thomas Lugrin , Anthony C. Davison , Jonathan A. Tawn

Gaussian random vectors exhibit the loss of dimension phenomena, which relate to their joint survival tail behaviour. Besides, the fact that the components of such vectors are light-tailed complicates the approximations of various…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-09 E. Hashorva

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

General Economics · Economics 2024-07-09 Yujuan Qiu

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Holger Drees , Miran Knezevic

The subject of tail estimation for randomly censored data from a heavy tailed distribution receives growing attention, motivated by applications for instance in actuarial statistics. The bias of the available estimators of the extreme value…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-19 Jan Beirlant , Gaonyalelwe Maribe , Andrehette Verster

Understanding the shape of a distribution of data is of interest to people in a great variety of fields, as it may affect the types of algorithms used for that data. We study one such problem in the framework of distribution property…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-06 Maryam Aliakbarpour , Amartya Shankha Biswas , Kavya Ravichandran , Ronitt Rubinfeld

We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

Heavy-tailed or power-law distributions are becoming increasingly common in biological literature. A wide range of biological data has been fitted to distributions with heavy tails. Many of these studies use simple fitting methods to find…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2007-12-06 A. James , M. J. Plank

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-23 Pavlina Jordanova

It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-08 Rose D Baker

Impact assessment of natural hazards requires the consideration of both extreme and non-extreme events. Extensive research has been conducted on the joint modeling of bulk and tail in univariate settings; however, the corresponding body of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Chenglei Hu , Ben Swallow , Daniela Castro-Camilo

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

By means of a Lynden-Bell integral with deterministic threshold, Worms and Worms [A Lynden-Bell integral estimator for extremes of randomly truncated data. Statist. Probab. Lett. 2016; 109: 106-117] recently introduced an asymptotically…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Nawel Haouas , Abdelhakim Necir , Djamel Meraghni , Brahim Brahimi

The concept of univariate Range Value-at-Risk, presented by Cont et al. (2010), is extended in the multidimensional setting. Traditional risk measures are not well suited when dealing with heavy-tail distributions and infinite tail…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-27 Roba Bairakdar , Lu Cao , Melina Mailhot

We introduce a consistent estimator of the extreme value index under random truncation based on a single sample fraction of top observations from truncated and truncation data. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-02 S. Benchaira , D. Meraghni , A. Necir

Heavy-tailed random samples, as well as their sum or average, are encountered in a number of signal processing applications in radar, communications, finance, and natural sciences. Modeling such data through the Pareto distribution is…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-05-04 Francesco Grassi , Angelo Coluccia